围填海格局变动下半封闭海湾区域综合风险的机理、模型与防范

Semi-enclosed bays featured with environmental sensitivity, ecological vulnerability and socio-economic significance, therefore are important in the coastal sustainable development. One of the key stresses for semi-enclosed bays is the increasing sea enclosing and coastal reclamation (SECR) in China. In this study, the Integrated Regional Risk (IRR) is proposed to be introduced to existing decision-making of SECR. The multidisciplinary theories and methodologies of geography, oceanography, ecology, environmental science and economics are applied to study the process, models and governance of IRR of different scenarios of SECR in semi-enclosed bays of China. There are three parts in this study which include theories, methodologies and case studies. The main contents are: 1) Defining and identifying multiple sources and attributes of risks in natural hazards, environmental pollution, habitat destruction, and ecological disorder, and studying the transferring, coupling and cumulative mechanism among above risks. 2) Modeling the potential hazards and grading the possibility and of every single risk event, then a Bay-wide Integrated Regional Risk Index (BIRRI) will be developed to characterize and measure the RIR for semi-enclosed bays. 3) Introducing the cost of potential hazard (cost in risk, CR) into existing cost-benefit analysis framework (CBA) in which only cost of construction (CC) and cost of environmental lost (CE) have been taken account, in order to optimize the selection of different scenarios; then introduce CR to eco-compensation (more popularly used as "payment for ecosystem services" world-widely) mechanism to determine the monetary amount to pay by the selected SECR scheme. 4) The above theories and methodologies will then be applied to Luoyuan Bay and Xiamen Bay in Fujian Province of China, the spatial and temporal characteristics and their relations with bay parameters of the IRRs of different SECR scenarios in both bays will be studied. The expected results will extend the theories and application of IRR, and in practice bring new approaches for the IRR governance in coastal areas.

综合应用地理学、海洋学、环境学、生态学、经济学等学科理论和方法，开展围填海格局变动下半封闭海湾区域综合风险的机理、模型与防范研究。主要内容包括：对围填海格局变动影响下半封闭海湾的自然灾害、环境污染、生境破坏、生态失衡等不同属性风险的变化进行识别和定义，研究其传导、耦合、累积作用机理；分别构建漫滩、溢油和赤潮等单一风险事件的效应分布模型和概率分级评估方法，在此基础上集成半封闭海湾区域综合风险指数进行表征和度量；将区域综合风险纳入半封闭海湾围填海的决策和管理，构建风险－费用效益分析模型以优化围填海决策，并对优选情景提出风险－生态补偿标准的定量模型；将上述理论和方法应用于福建省罗源湾和厦门湾，分析比较不同围填海情景下其区域综合风险的时空分异特征，及其与海湾地理特征、发展阶段、利用规划等变量的关系规律。预期研究成果将丰富区域综合风险的理论和方法，提高海岸带地区风险防范水平。

当前一些地区围填海规模失控，成为海岸带地区人-地关系突出问题，其原因之一在于：围填海的可行性论证局限于常规生态环境效应，缺乏对其风险的充分认识，未将环境风险因素纳入围填海的决策过程。.本项目围绕“半封闭海湾围填海风险评价和管控”这一主要研究目标，以区域视角，应用系统方法学和跨学科手段，科学界定评价对象，将研究内容聚焦于围填海行为的直接、长期、重大效应，即由围填海引起的海水动力改变、环境容量变化、生境损失影响等物理、化学、生态的自然属性风险，并延伸至风险的社会属性，对围填海的公众接受度开展研究，在此基础上，以风险评价纳入决策的途径的研究作为重点。项目研究包括机理解析、方法构建和案例实证三个部分。.本项目首先辨析了海洋安全、海洋风险、海洋健康、累积影响等相关概念，认识了风险属性的传递、转化、放大规律。.在此基础上，提出了各类属性风险的表征和度量方法，即基于海水动力模型的敏感点流速、海域整体流态、重点断面流量（纳潮量）、泥沙冲淤变化，基于水体半交换速率的海湾环境容量，基于环境容量的污染累积风险评价、基于生境丧失影响的海湾关键生态区域保护程度评价、基于公众风险认知的社会接受度评价。针对不同属性的风险构建了表征指标、量化模型。.本项目探讨了多种风险决策机制和途径，包括基于预警预防原则的风险评价判据、战略决策过程中环境风险评价应用、纳入风险成本的围填海可行性决策框架、风险因子约束下城市空间布局调整、城市产业结构的风险度评估等。.本项目除风险相关研究外，开展了国家和地方海洋安全、小尺度区域海洋健康指数（Ocean Health Index, OHI）、海洋工程累积影响评价方法和应用的研究探索工作。.本项目系统研究了围填海风险评价和管控的理论和方法，并注重理论方法的案例实证，根据需要，以厦门湾海域、厦门市、漳州市、古雷半岛、福建沿海围填海区块等为对象开展了方法验证，研究成果除以论文形式在期刊发表，还为相关海洋部门的管理提供了科学依据。