基于多维临界调控理论的区域水土资源优化配置及其风险评估—以三江平原为例

Aiming at the problems that the influences and restrictions among subsystems not fully considered in current studies on optimal allocation of water and soil resources easily lead to system disorder and overload operation, we plan to take Sanjiang Plain as example, to determine the information flow transfer and quantitative relationship between different system elements and construct dynamic simulation model of water and soil resources system based on system dynamics theory, to identify sensitive factors and their types and initialize allocation program set of water and soil resources, to establish multidimensional critical regulation model based on cybernetics, synergetics and dissipative structure theory, to determine regulating means and process according to the criterions of a coordinate and orderly system and establish optimal allocation program set of water and soil resources, to filter the uncertain and certain efficiency evaluation indexes for the optimal allocation programs of water and soil resources based on resources efficient and sustainable use and risk management theories, and to establish program comprehensive efficiency evaluation model in order to identify the best optimal allocation program of water and soil resources. The research results have great significances to reveal the intrinsic contact and evolution mechanisms of regional water and soil resources system, to solve the problems of the quantitative expression of a coordinate and orderly system, the determination of regulating means and process and the program comprehensive efficiency evaluation based on risk assessment in the allocating process of water and soil resources, and to enrich and complete the optimal allocation theory system of water and soil resources.

针对现有水土资源优化配置研究未充分考虑子系统之间的影响和制约，易造成系统无序和超负荷运行问题，本项目以三江平原为地域依托，运用系统动力学理论，确定水土资源系统不同要素间信息流传递与定量关系，构建水土资源系统动态仿真模型，识别敏感因子及类型，初始化水土资源配置方案集；运用控制论、协同论和耗散结构理论，构建多维临界调控模型，依据系统协调和有序的判别准则，确定水土资源配置调控手段及调控过程，建立水土资源优化配置方案集；运用资源高效可持续利用和风险管理理论，筛选水土资源优化配置方案确定性和不确定性效能评价指标，建立方案综合效能评价模型，识别水土资源优化配置最佳方案。研究成果为揭示区域水土资源系统内在联系机制和演变机理，解决水土资源配置过程中系统协调和有序的定量化表达、水土资源配置调控手段及调控过程的确定、基于风险评估的方案综合效能评价问题，丰富与完善水土资源优化配置理论体系均具有重要意义。

本项目以三江平原为研究区域，以多维临界调控理论为方法，以系统动力学为技术，开展区域水资源优化配置研究。通过对三江平原水资源供需平衡分析、农业水土资源承载力评价研究，确定三江平原区划内佳木斯市水土资源利用程度较低、承载能力较弱、水资源存在着供需不平衡的现状，因此以佳木斯市为典型区域。通过对佳木斯市水资源经济环境效应评价、水土资源利用动态仿真模型的构建，确定佳木斯市水资源利用问题较为显著，急需进行水资源优化配置。结合水土资源利用动态仿真结果，进行佳木斯市水资源优化配置方案的初步设计，形成水资源优化配置初始方案集；采用界壳的泛系观控模型对初始方案集进行风险评估，确定水资源利用低风险的优化配置模式。结合多维临界调控理论，计算30个组合方案的综合效益；结合可持续发展原则，选出多维临界调控方案设置的参考方案。根据多维临界调控中各维的调控目标和准则，得到佳木斯市多维临界调控指标阈值与理想点，设置序参量组合方案。应用协同学理论衡量五维子系统的有序程度，计算出各序参量的有序度，通过有序度来衡量序参量之间协同作用，用系统熵判别水资源系统的演化方向，选出理想的调控方案，最终确定佳木斯市水资源优化配置最佳方案。本项目提出基于多维临界调控理论的区域水资源优化配置研究模式，可为其他区域相关研究提供参考和模式借鉴。