住区公共服务设施空间配置与居住人群时空间行为耦合模型研究

The resident’s lifestyle and activity changed dramatically in the age of Internet and internet of things. It’s a key issue in the field of the relationship between the residential time-space activity and the neighborhood public facilities allocation. The existing method to allocate the neighborhood public facilities according the requirements of “thousand-people” index in a delinquent way which cannot meet the residents’ real needs. The information communication technology (ICT) makes it is possible to collect the big-data of the time-space behavior information of the residents. This brings a new point of view about the research on the allocation of public facilities on the neighborhood level. .The research intends to study the coupling relationship between public facilities allocation and the residential time-spatial activity by studying the typical neighborhood cases which selected from the important existing neighborhood in shanghai and the other surroundings cities with the method of Residential Satisfactory evaluation and the Delphi method. The study takes the public facility allocation and residential time-spatial activity as two related systems. In order to construct the mathematic coupling model of two systems, the study will surveying the public facilities of the selected cases and forming the allocation mapping of public facility, then built the residential time-spatial activity mapping through analyzing the collected big-data from mobile terminal and GPS data of the cases. The study need to overlap the above two mappings together to analyze the relationship between public facilities allocation and the residential time-spatial activity to give visible outcomes. Then the research will construct coupling mathematic model base on the variable of the two systems from AHP analysis with multiple regression and Goodness-of-fit test. The results can be used as the suggestion of optimizing existing public facilities of neighborhood and the principles for adjusting of the planning standards.

互联、物联网极大地改变了居民的行为活动方式。公共服务设施配置如何响应使用人群时空间行为变化成为住区问题研究的重点。受传统数据采集技术限制，以“千人指标”、“分级配置”住区公共服务设施的方式只呼应人口规模、难以响应使用人群行为的变化。而信息通信技术（ICT）的发展使得收集更为全面的使用人群时空间行为数据成为可能，带来住区公共服务设施配置研究新的契机。.本项目拟将专家咨询法与满意度评价结合，遴选典型案例，研究公共服务设施空间配置与使用人群时空间行为关系。通过实地调研绘制住区公共服务设施空间配置地图；将移动终端数据与个体GPS数据结合，分析生成居住人群时空间行为地图；双图叠加分析上述两类地图，在揭示两者相关性的基础上，用层级分析法（AHP）提取系统向变量，辅以多元回归检验拟合优度，构建住区公共服务设施空间配置与居住人群时空间行为耦合数学评价模型。为公共服务设施的空间配置规划、优化提供决策依据。

本项目研究公共服务设施空间配置与使用人群时空间行为的关系。原计划通过实地调研绘制住区公共服务设施空间配置地图，将移动终端数据与个体GPS数据结合生成居住人群时空间行为地图，通过双图叠加揭示两者相关性进而构建数学评价模型。.在研究过程中，考虑到疫情对人群出行行为的影响，以及由此引起的移动终端数据有偏性放大的问题。本项目选择不同类型的公共服务设施分别进行研究。在上海市中心城区，对社区运动设施、社区卫生中心的环境要素对居民活动的影响作用进行实证研究。结果表明，设施可得性、空间环境设计、居民工作状况显著影响人们的活动时间；设施可得性、环境健康、社会资本、设施面积显著影响居民活动强度。研究结论可为提升社区空间品质、促进居民活动水平提供规划设计和管理政策参考。