河长制背景下基于共识决策的跨界水污染治理机制研究

The river chief policy (RCP) provides guidance for the improvement of the trans-boundary water environment. The effects of trans-boundary water pollution control under RCP mainly depend on whether the trans-boundary river chiefs could reach a consensus on the pollution control as regards their own interests. At present, few studies have focused on the pollution control in trans-boundary waters under RCP, and the existent researches based on game theory have not yet achieved desired results. On the basis of RCP and consensus decision-making methods, this project explores the coordination mechanism of trans-boundary water pollution control from different perspectives. First, the key factors influencing trans-boundary water pollution control as well as their mechanism and characteristics are analyzed. Then, starting from the assumption of bounded rationality of decision-makers, and combining theories of cumulative prospect, regret, multi-attribute utility, as well as goal programming, the trans-boundary water pollution control mechanisms are constructed based on the consensus of bounded rationality, multi-attribute utility and decision-making context, respectively. Finally, combining the common goal of Taihu water pollution control under RCP with field survey data, the effects of the trans-boundary water pollution control mechanism are verified based on three types of consensus models, for which mechanisms and feasible suggestions are put forward. This project aims not only to extend the scope of consensus theory and methods, but also provide theoretical reference for decision-making for trans-boundary pollution control of typical watershed like Taihu Lake.

河长制为跨域水环境改善的“河长治”提供了政策导向。河长制背景下跨界水污染治理机制效果，主要取决于跨界河长之间能否就治污涉及自身利益达成共识。目前，针对河长制下跨界水污染治理机制的研究相对较少，且基于博弈论治理机制的既有研究尚未取得预期效果。由此，本项目从河长制出发，基于共识决策方法，从不同视角研究跨界水污染治理机制。首先，萃取跨界水污染治理关键影响因素，阐示其影响机理与特征。随后针对决策者的有限理性假设，综合运用累积前景理论、后悔理论、多属性效用理论以及目标规划理论，分别构建基于有限理性共识、多属性效用共识以及考虑决策情境共识的跨界水污染治理机制。最后，结合河长制背景下太湖水污染治理共同目标及实地调查数据，验证基于三类共识决策模型的跨界水污染治理机制的效果，据此提出太湖水污染治理的可行机制与建议。本项目既拓展共识决策理论与方法的研究范围，也为太湖等典型流域跨界治污决策提供理论参考。

本项目立足于我国河长制的现实背景，着重从人、属性以及决策情境等三个角度出发，基于多方利益主体协商共识视角对河长制背景下的跨界水污染治理机制进行深入研究。具体地，将跨界水域河长视为决策者，中央环保部视为协调者，通过分析河长制下跨水域治污问题的具体特征，分别从“有限理性人”、“方案多属性”以及“决策情境”等三个维度构建相应的共识决策模型，据此提出河长制下跨水域各方河长的最优意见调整策略。. 主要成果有：（1）针对河长在共识形成过程中表现出的容忍行为与有限妥协行为，基于有限理性独立决策者假设，构建了预算约束下基于最大满意度的群体共识模型。（2）针对治污决策中多个属性之间相互关联的情形，提出了有限预算约束下的最大效用共识模型，并探讨属性关联对共识达成成本及共识效用的影响。（3）针对河长之间具有关联关系的决策情境因素，基于关联决策者的网络拓扑结构分析，提出针对不完全语言偏好关系的最小调整网络共识模型。（4）针对河长之间具有关联关系的决策情境因素，基于关联决策者假设，构建了考虑决策者有限妥协的最小调整网络共识模型。（5）针对社会网络群决策中由意见分歧和弱信任关系导致的个体间和谐度低的决策情境，提出了一种考虑决策者间和谐程度的社会网络群决策最小调整共识框架。（6）针对河长之间具有关联关系的情境，探讨属性差异及非合作行为对群体间信任关系及共识形成过程的影响，构建了考虑多属性决策者非合作行为的共识模型。研究成果可为涉及多省、市区的跨水域治污决策提供经验借鉴与参考。此外，结合太湖流域治污案例提出政策建议，为我国打造碧水清流的生态环境目标做贡献。