外源融资风险容忍度对区域创新绩效的影响机理及提升策略研究

External financing systems can support regional innovation by tolerating and bearing the risk of technological trial and error. How to enhance the tolerance of external financing risk and improve the innovation quality of regional innovation in basic research and original innovation is the key problem to be solved urgently for China to become technological powers from technological giants. However, the existing literature pays insufficient attention to the characteristics of external financing risk tolerance and its incentive mechanism for regional innovation. This project integrates risk tolerance and innovation preference into the framework of regional innovation theory, and systematically analyses the impact mechanism of risk tolerance of external financing on regional innovation performance. Firstly, based on the three dimensions of tolerance intensity, tolerance breadth and tolerance elasticity, this project constructs the econometric model of external financing risk tolerance, and solves the optimal threshold of risk tolerance. Secondly, it demonstrates the influence path that enhancing risk tolerance can endogenously incentive regional innovation from incremental innovation to radical innovation, and empirically tests the synergistic effect of banks, institutional investors and venture investors in supporting regional innovation. Finally, it discusses the variation of risk tolerance in different market environments and policy environments, and accurately evaluates the policy distance, financing distance and market distance of regional innovation. This research aims to deepen the theory of regional innovation and provide theoretical guidance and policy reference for improving the financial support system of regional innovation.

外源融资体系能够通过容忍并承担技术试错的风险支持区域创新。如何增强外源融资风险容忍度，提升在基础研究和原始创新领域的区域创新质量，是中国从科技大国成为科技强国亟需解决的关键问题。而现有文献对外源融资风险容忍度特征及其对区域创新的激励机制等问题关注不足。本项目将风险容忍和创新偏好整合在区域创新理论框架下，系统分析外源融资风险容忍度对区域创新绩效的影响机理。首先，从容忍强度、容忍广度和容忍弹性三个维度，构建外源融资风险容忍度测度模型，求解风险容忍度的最优阈值；其次，论证风险容忍度增强内生激励区域创新由渐进式创新向突破式创新转变的影响路径，实证检验银行、机构投资者和风险投资者支持区域创新的协同效应；最后，探讨不同市场环境和政策环境下风险容忍度的变动规律，精准评估区域创新的政策距离、融资距离和市场距离。本项目旨在深化区域创新理论，为完善区域创新金融支持体系提供理论指导和政策参考。

外源融资风险容忍度是衡量金融体系对技术试错风险承担和风险容忍能力的重要指标，提高风险容忍度有助于鼓励技术创新、提升区域创新绩效。然而，外源融资如何通过风险容忍机制支持鼓励创新，如何增强外源融资风险容忍度提高区域创新绩效，还没有得到系统研究。本项目主要研究了外源融资风险容忍度的内涵、特征和测度问题，识别了风险容忍度通过改变创新偏好影响区域创新绩效的作用路径，探讨了外部政策环境对区域创新的影响效应及风险容忍度提升策略。. 研究结果如下：（1）界定了外源融资风险容忍度的内涵，识别了风险容忍强度、风险容忍广度和风险容忍弹性三个特征维度，构建了外源融资风险容忍度的评价体系。（2）考虑了股权和债权融资风险容忍度对企业家预期收益率的影响，提出并验证了“风险容忍增强、风险偏好激励、创新偏好激励、创新绩效提升”的路径模型，揭示了银行信贷债权融资、股票市场融资和风险投资风险容忍度影响区域创新绩效的理论机制。（3）实证检验了三类外源融资风险容忍度的差异及其对区域创新绩效的线性和非线性影响，发现股权融资比债权融资对技术创新失败的风险容忍度更大，股权融资风险容忍度比债权融资风险容忍度对区域创新绩效的支持效果更好；风险容忍度最高的风险投资比股票市场融资和银行信贷融资对技术创新的支持作用更大，提高政府效率会强化支持效应，加强政府监管会抑制支持效应；风险容忍度相对较低的早期和晚期风险投资比风险容忍度相对较高的种子期风险投资对技术创新的促进效果更好，这表明风险投资风险容忍度并非越大越好。（4）评估了外部政策环境对区域创新的激励效果，发现科技成果转化政策力度、目标、措施均会显著提升区域创新绩效，科技金融试点政策可以有效促进试点城市创新产出的数量和质量。上述研究成果不仅在理论上丰富了外源融资风险容忍度与区域创新的相关研究，而且在实践上为完善鼓励技术创新试错容错的融资环境和政策环境提供了对策建议。