区域碳减排的中低收入人群社会福利影响及适应对策

The basic logic of this project is that carbon reduction process responding to climate change would obviously bring negative impact to low and medium-income groups' general welfare. These groups' stability and sustainable development, however, have a direct relationship with a country's work of maintaining stability. Because of the widespread regional differentiation, the impact to low and medium-income groups would be more urgent and complex. As a result, we must carry out a relevant reserve of policies in advance. The project's overall objectives are to simulate low and medium-income groups' responses to carbon reduction policies of sub-regional industries and to improve the classified tax compensation policies to these groups' social welfare by establishing a simulation platform which could show the impacts to the low and medium-income groups from regional carbon reduction policies. What's more, the project will come up with strategies helping low and medium-income groups to adapt to regional differentiation and a regional governance model. At last the reserve of policies to protect low and medium-income groups' social welfare during the carbon reduction process will be put up and provide the necessary scientific support for China to maintain long-term stability and harmony. The specific tasks include: 1. establish a dynamic provincial multi-regional CGE model which is influenced by regional carbon reduction; 2. establish a computable Diamond model based on different social welfare income classes; 3. build a integrated policy simulation platform which can reflect the impact on regional carbon reduction to income classes; 4. simulate the impacts of China's regional carbon reduction on low and medium-income groups.

本项目的基本逻辑认为应对气候变化的碳减排过程显然会对敏感脆弱的中低收入群体的综合福利带来负面影响，而该群体的稳定和可持续发展将直接关系国家的维稳工作。由于区域分异的普遍存在，减排的中低收入群体影响这个问题更加紧迫和复杂，必须提前开展相关政策储备。项目总体目标是通过建立区域碳减排对中低收入群体影响的综合政策模拟平台，模拟分区域产业减排政策的中低收入群体响应，以及改善该群体社会福利的分类财税补偿政策，提出面向区域分异的中低收入群体减排适应对策和区域管治模式，最终形成保障减排过程中低收入群体社会福利的政策储备，为中国保持长期稳定和谐提供必要的科学支撑。具体任务包括：1，区域碳减排影响的动态省级多区域CGE模型建模；2，社会福利收入阶层分配的可计算Diamond模型；3，区域碳减排对收入阶层影响的集成政策模拟平台；4，中国区域碳减排对中低收入群体影响的控制对策模拟。

在国家自然科学基金面上项目的资助下，本项目研究构建了面向区域碳减排多群体社会福利影响分析的动态省级多区域CGE模型，与其他项目充分配合，成功合作开发了具有自主知识产权的面向区域碳减排政策模拟的云计算CGE软件系统，并利用该政策模拟系统针对中国重大区域碳减排政策的社会福利和经济影响问题，特别是多社会群体的减排反馈问题进行了研究分析。本项目主要工作包括：1，基础模型研究。构建了面向碳减排多群体社会福利影响分析的中国排动态省级多区域CGE模型，该模型在一般动态CGE模型的基础上将人口组进行细分，充分考虑了区域、代际、城乡等多群体的经济特征，重新校准其关键参数变量，如消费、收入、储蓄、劳动产出弹性、资本折旧率等，并与碳排放经济影响模块融合，实现了碳减排中国多群体社会福利分析的目标；2，政策模拟系统开发。本项目与其他配套项目合作，共同开发了面向碳减排社会福利分析的云计算动态多区域CGE政策模拟系统，一定程度上解决了大规模CGE模型的可计算性困难，实现了CGE政策模拟模型的云计算服务能力；3，典型气候变化及碳减排政策的社会群体福利政策模拟。着重开展了中国重点产业减排的多社会群体福利影响分析，气候变化及减排导致的人口流动及社会群体福利变化分析，气候变化对中国主要地理和经济分界线胡焕庸线稳定性的影响及线侧社会群体福利变化研究等，提出了一系列的国家经济调控政策建议。此外，作为本项目的支撑性工作，本课题还针对典型省区碳排放预测、贴现率等关键参数的再估计、中国气候变化下的产业结构演化、区域贸易隐含碳问题等若干重要问题开展政策模拟研究。本项目合作成果“气候变化经济分析的多区域政策模拟云计算公共服务平台软件”定位于开源软件，向社会开放技术文档和软件源代码。该系统在项目依托单位支持下，已部署至高性能计算服务器并上线运行，对外提供CGE政策模拟云计算服务。