系统柔韧性导向的城市多方式交通网络设计技术

Facing with the expansion of transportation networks and the evolution of travel demands, flexibility-oriented network design is remarkably demanding in the research and practice of urban transportation planning. To enhance the adaptability of urban transportation planning to the evolving travel demands, this project addresses the system flexibility-oriented design technique of multi-modal transportation networks. Particularly, we will develop some critical theories and methods for resolving the transportation network design problem. Transportation systems mainly consist of the travel demand side and traffic supply side. The coupling relationship of the two sides can be characterized by the concept of system flexibility. Specifically, from the demand side, we will explore the evolution mechanism of urban travel demands induced by the urban space expansion. The evolution mechanism can be used to construct the disaggregate/aggregate relations between the overall and partial travel demands, and also to develop improved travel demand estimation methods with an explicit consideration of demand evolution. From the supply side, we will use the network equilibrium theory to develop network capacity models of road systems, respectively. The network capacity models can be used to quantify the adaptability of urban transportation systems to the evolving travel demands. Depending on the evolution pattern of travel demands, the network capacity models can be further specialized as the reserve capacity model, ultimate capacity model, and practical capacity model. The reserve capacity model characterizes the maximum demand volume change under a fixed travel demand structure; the ultimate capacity model captures both the maximum demand volume change and the most coupling travel demand structure with the network topology; and the practical capacity model captures the maximum volume change of both existing demands and additional demands, as well as the most coupling travel demand structure of the additional demands. By synthesizing the travel demand estimation and the network capacity estimation, we will then develop a system flexibility analysis framework to assess the coupling relationship between the supply and demand sides. Finally, the transportation system flexibility will be used as the criterion of multi-modal transportation network design from multiple levels. On the macroscopic level, we will optimize the traffic modal structure in order to match with the evolving travel demands; on the mesoscopic level, we will optimize the location and allocation of multi-modal traffic resources; and on the microscopic level, we will optimize the connection of multi-modal networks. This research has a potential to enrich the traffic network flow theory, to develop the approaches of improving the urban transportation systems, and also to enhance the rationality of both urban planning and transportation planning.

面对交通网络增长和交通需求演化，柔韧性导向的交通网络设计技术，是我国城市交通规划理论与实践的重大需求。交通系统由需求和供给两部分组成，需求和供给之间的耦合关系表现为系统柔韧性。项目在需求方面，剖析交通需求演化机理，探寻城市整体、局部需求间的包融关系，建立城市交通需求估计方法。在供给方面，基于网络均衡理论，建立交通网络承载能力模型，解析交通系统应对需求变化的能力。基于需求估计和承载能力估计，建立系统柔韧性分析方法，评价城市交通需求与供给的耦合关系。以提升系统柔韧性为导向，从不同层面研究多方式交通网络的设计方法。在宏观层面，优化适应需求演变的交通方式结构，提高交通系统承载力；在中观层面，优化各种交通方式的资源配置与空间布局；在微观层面，优化道路、轨道交通网络结合部的衔接方式。研究成果可丰富交通网络流理论体系，指明现代城市交通系统改善方法与途径，增强城市交通规划的科学性。

面对交通网络增长和交通需求演化，柔韧性导向的交通网络设计技术，是我国城市交通规 划理论与实践的重大需求。交通系统由需求和供给两部分组成，需求和供给之间的耦合关 系表现为系统柔韧性。项目在需求方面，剖析交通需求演化机理，探寻城市整体、局部需 求间的包融关系，建立城市交通需求估计方法。在供给方面，基于网络均衡理论，建立交 通网络承载能力模型，解析交通系统应对需求变化的能力。基于需求估计和承载能力估计 ，建立系统柔韧性分析方法，评价城市交通需求与供给的耦合关系。以提升系统柔韧性为 导向，从不同层面研究多方式交通网络的设计方法。在宏观层面，优化适应需求演变的交 通方式结构，提高交通系统承载力；在中观层面，优化各种交通方式的资源配置与空间布 局；在微观层面，优化道路、轨道交通网络结合部的衔接方式。研究成果可丰富交通网络 流理论体系，指明现代城市交通系统改善方法与途径，增强城市交通规划的科学性。