中国草食畜牧产业空间农区转移机理及其适应性研究

Herbivorous animal husbandry is the most important link for constructing the planting and breeding industry system. It gives consideration to both grains and industrial crop in fodder, combining agriculture and animal husbandry, and implements ecological and cyclic development. Herbivorous animal husbandry has an important theoretical and realistic significance for expanding the field of discipline research, and for constructing new types of planting and breeding relations through prospectively carrying out research on the agricultural area transfer mechanism of Chinese herbivorous animal husbandry and its adaptability. The present project is oriented to the new trend for the structural reform of agricultural supply side, based on the theory and method system of rural geography; integrates the application of GIS, typical investigation and measuring model method; intensively studies the development dynamics and space transfer process of herbivorous animal husbandry; focuses on analyzing the driving force for the agricultural area transfer of herbivorous animal husbandry industry space; detects the micro effect mechanism and its internal rules of subject behaviors; evaluates the adaptability of leading regional patterns; and puts forwards the optimization scheme, as well as management and control approaches, for the regional model of herbivorous animal husbandry, on the basis of the model operation efficiency and regional restriction conditions, in combination with the future scenario simulation. The project has highlighted the space transfer mechanism of herbivorous animal husbandry and its regional model type identification, adaptability evaluation, and systematic research on scientific management and control approaches. The project has also theoretically revealed the interactive relationship of process—effect—regulation as well as the dynamic mechanism, and enriched the research of rural geography in the geographic field of animal husbandry in various disciplines. The project has served practically for the national agricultural structure adjustment and a new type of planting and breeding relationship construction, as well as other strategies and decisions.

草食畜牧业是优化农业结构、发展种养结合循环型绿色农业最为重要的一环，前瞻性地开展草食畜牧业农区转移机理及其适应性研究，对于拓展学科研究领域、构建新型种养关系具有重要的理论与现实意义。项目面向农业供给侧结构性改革的新动向，立足于乡村地理学的理论与方法体系，综合应用GIS、典型调查、多学科理论和模型方法，揭示草食畜牧产业发展动态及空间转移过程，重点探测草食畜牧产业空间农区转移的驱动力与要素配置原则，解析主体行为的微观作用机理及内在规律，评估区域主导地域模式的适应性，提出模式适应性策略和区域管控方案，结合未来情景模拟，研究潜力区可资借鉴的模式及准入标准。项目突出草食畜牧产业空间转移机理及其地域模式的适应性评估和区域准入标准的系统研究，在理论上揭示过程—效应—调控的交互关系及动力机制，在学科上丰富乡村地理学在畜牧业地理领域的研究，在实践上为乡村农业产业提质与农区新型种养关系构建等战略决策提供支撑。

草食畜牧业是优化农业结构、发展种养结合绿色农业最为重要的一环。当前研究缺少对农业产业空间转移机理及适应性的系统研究。本项目综合应用多学科理论和模型方法，系统分析了草食畜牧业的空间集聚特征、分布及演化过程，采用动态空间面板模型揭示了产业转移的影响因素；从牧区与农区比较的视角，运用R聚类-因子分析法构建评价指标体系，分析农区发展草食畜牧业的适应性；选取典型农区作为案例区，利用系统动力学方法，建立农区草食畜牧业发展系统，并设计不同发展策略，探索提出其优化路径。研究发现：产业空间转移特征上看，我国草食畜牧业的集聚程度明显增强，空间依赖特征显著，产业重心穿越了农牧分界线，自西向东偏北转移；产业空间转移驱动力上看，土地生产能力及饲草料的供应是推动草食畜牧业由牧区向农区转移的关键因素；产业适应性上看，当前生产力水平下牧区草食畜牧业已接近承载力上限，农区更具发展潜力，但农区产业发展水平整体偏低，有着较大提升空间；适应性策略上，在不加入任何发展策略惯性趋势下，农区受制于母畜规模、疫病和繁育水平等因素的影响，难以实现产业的持续发展，而单独扩大养殖规模又会过度占用环境容量，长期会有饲草料供不足需的问题，若按调优粮-经-饲种植业结构方案下，草食畜牧业发展是惯性趋势的1.89倍。基于项目研究结论，政策启示在于：推动草食畜牧业农牧区双赢发展、高质量发展，建议，一是分区分类施策，充分发挥农区和牧区禀赋优势，基于草食畜牧业的分工基础，继续强化产业分工；二是无论是农区还是牧区，推动草食畜牧业转型升级，亟需围绕提升优质饲草生产供给能力布局系列举措；三是牧区繁育等关键技术体系建设，农区草食家畜疫病防控，对产业持续健康稳定发展的极为关键。本项目的科学意义是在理论上揭示了草食畜牧产业发展的过程—效应—调控的交互关系及产业空间转移的动力机制，对拓展学科研究领域、构建新型种养关系具有一定的理论与现实意义。