雪灾对青藏高原畜牧经济增长的阻滞效应和草地畜牧业空间适应研究

This proposal is to conduct the resistance effect and spatial adaptation research of snow disaster on animal husbandry incorporating with the principles and characteristics of human geography, agricultural economics, alpine ecology, and cryospheric disaster. This project’s mainstreaming focus was elaborated in the process and spatial effects of snow disaster on animal economy in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau..The proposal project implementation is based on two inter-related technological keys that will directly address the identified barriers to maintaining the sustainability of animal husbandry under snow disaster context. The two key scientific issues are: (1) the scientific linkage way of the different discipline interfaces around the climate change, cryospheric disaster, grassland animal husbandry as well as the highland man-land relationship; (2) the transferring methods from effect relation of animal husbandry to spatial relation of adaptation around the mainline of snow disaster, resistance effect, and spatial adaptation of animal husbandry. This objective of proposal is to establish the resistance effect model of snow disaster on animal husbandry based on occurrence index of snow disaster, prevention index of snow disaster addressing livestock condition, reduction index of snow disaster addressing geographical feature, and to reveal the spatial heterogeneity of animal husbandry adaptation. The project is to contribute to the improvement of man-land relationship theory in revealing mechanism of processing and spatial adaptation, to expanding the applicability and sociality of cryosphere science, and thereby enhance the security of animal products supply, picking up the pace of poverty alleviation and building a well-being society, promoting the sustainability of animal husbandry on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

本项目结合人文地理学、产业经济学、草地生态学等学科特点，以雪灾作为切入点开展雪灾对青藏高原草地畜牧经济的影响和空间适应研究，围绕气候变化、冰冻圈灾害、草地畜牧业及其在多维空间上形成的复杂人地关系，探讨不同系统界面链接的科学表达方式；围绕雪灾、效应、空间适应之间的逻辑主线，探索畜牧产业效应联系向畜牧产业空间适应联系转化的理论方法，通过解决以上2个关键科学问题，建立以雪灾发生指数、畜牧抗灾指数、地理减灾指数为核心的青藏高原畜牧经济效应评价模型；揭示青藏高原草地畜牧业空间适应的异质性规律。通过本项目的研究，将进一步丰富高原人地关系的适应理论，巩固高原畜牧产业与地理空间的关系、人灾适应过程联系以及动力机制研究的理论基础，拓展、延伸冰冻圈科学的社会属性，深化、提升人文地理学应用的综合性和创新性，同时，本项研究对提高青藏高原牧区防治雪灾的能力、保障高原畜产品的供给安全、促进高原草地畜牧业的可持续发展、加快高原牧区脱贫和建成全面小康社会均具有重要的现实意义。

本项目结合人文地理学、产业经济学和草地生态学等学科特点，以雪灾作为切入点开展雪灾对青藏高原畜牧经济影响和空间适应研究，根据气候变化、冰冻圈灾害、草地畜牧业及其在多尺度空间形成的复杂人地关系，探讨不同系统界面链接的科学表达方式。遵循雪灾、效应、空间适应之间的逻辑主线，探索畜牧产业效应联系向畜牧产业空间适应联系转化的理论方法，建立以雪灾发生指数、畜牧抗灾指数、地理减灾指数为核心的青藏高原畜牧经济效应评价模型；揭示青藏高原草地畜牧业空间适应的异质性规律。围绕以上目标，项目定量分析了雪灾对长江黄河源区畜牧经济和社会的负向作用强度。定量分析了日喀则地区雪灾对农村居民生计的影响，阐明了雪灾阻碍居民生计的主要特征。建立了畜牧业雪灾恢复力量化测度双评价模型，比较并揭示了江河源区畜牧业雪灾恢复力的时空变化特征。开展了雪灾对畜牧经济阻滞效应的数值模拟研究，揭示了雪灾阻滞畜牧经济发展的动态效应及其结构机制。开展了江河源区畜牧业空间适应分类研究，并针对不同的空间适应类型提出了差异举措。项目执行期间，发表学术论文11篇，其中SCI/SSCI论文8篇、CSCD论文2篇、会议论文1篇，参与编著2部。项目成员参加国际交流16人次。申请发明专利4项，其中授权发明专利1项；授权软件著作权2项。通过本项目的研究，进一步丰富了高原人地关系的适应理论，巩固了高原畜牧产业与地理空间的关系、人灾适应过程联系以及动力机制研究的理论基础，深化、提升了人文地理学应用的广域性和创新性。同时，项目研发的基于结构动力学草地生态承载力模型和计算软件，对科学判识青藏高原牧区资源环境承载空间，提升防治雪灾的能力，促进高原草地畜牧业的可持续发展具有重要现实意义。