农业经营主体分化对粮食生产能力的影响机理研究：以黄淮海典型县域为例

Agricultural operators’ diversification can be seen as the dominant process of agricultural transformation and upgrading in China. Furthermore, grain productivity depends heavily on the construction of new agricultural management system, and is critical to maintaining national food security both under the current situation and in the future. However, the mechanisms underlying these impacts are poorly understood. So it is extremely important to carry out this research. In this project, we will choose several typical counties of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain as study areas, and then primarily focus on studying the process and main types of agricultural operators’ diversification from a rural geographical perspective. Methods and models, such as the effectiveness index, sample surveys and econometric models, are intensively and combinedly used here to analyze the different behaviors in managing and using cultivated land to achieve different goals like increasing grain production among famers. To sum up, the purpose of this study is to evaluate food production efficiency, and reveal the mechanisms underlying the impacts of agricultural operators’ diversification on grain productivity. Based on the expected results of the study above, we will be able to provide some policy recommendations on how to facilitate agricultural operators’ inclination to make decisions in favor of grain production and food security. In this respect, we will particularly look at agricultural operators’ multi-purpose use and diversified grain productivity of arable land, and will always highlight theoretical analysis and empirical study throughout the whole research. Our theoretical model of “entity transition-resource utilization-effects” will be explained systematically, which is going to set solid ground for feasible path optimization and control. We hope that the implementation of this project would serve its purpose as cultivating new national agricultural operators and increasing national food security.

农业经营主体分化是中国农业转型升级的主导人文过程，前瞻性地开展农业经营主体分化对粮食生产能力的影响机理研究，对于构建新型农业经营体系、保障新形势下的国家粮食安全具有重要意义。项目以黄淮海典型县域为例，立足于乡村地理学的理论与方法体系，集成应用抽样调查、统计分析和计量模型，构建农业经营主体分化的功效指数和效应模型，深入研究农业经营主体的分化过程和分化类型，重点解析不同类型农业经营主体的耕地利用行为及其粮食生产意愿，评估粮食生产要素配置效率和生产能力，揭示农业经营主体分化对粮食生产能力的影响机理，探明区域农业经营主体选择路径及成长的政策制度供给。项目突出微观农业经营主体耕地利用目标与粮食生产能力的差异性研究，注重理论分析与实证研究相结合，系统阐释“主体变迁—资源利用—影响效应”的交互关系及作用机理，提出优化调控的可行性路径，服务于国家新型经营主体培育和粮食生产能力保障体系构建等战略与决策实践。

农业经营主体分化是中国农业转型升级的主导人文过程。掌握不同类型农业经营主体的耕地利用行为及其粮食生产能力，明确区域农业经营主体选择路径，这是新形势下保障国家粮食安全、构建粮食生产能力的保障体系的客观需求，也是探索适合的农业经营经营主体解决“如何种好地、产好粮？”推动现代农业建设的重要命题。本项目在现有的研究基础上，分析了农业经营主体及制度的变迁过程，揭示农业经营主体的耕地利用行为、主体分化对粮食生产的影响，借鉴日韩农业经营主体的政策支持方式，多视角提出了我国农业经营主体培育路径与政策创设建议，为国家新型经营主体培育提供了决策参考。研究发现，我国农业生产经营制度及主体变迁具有明显的阶段性特征，1953至今可以划分为五个阶段，即1953-1958年家庭经营为基础的合作经营阶段，1959-1978年人民公社体制下的集体经营阶段，1979-1992年纯农户为主体的家庭承包经营阶段，1993-2012年纯农户、兼业户并存的家庭承包经营阶段，2013年至今家庭经营、集体经营、合作经营、企业经营等多种经营形式并存阶段。经营主体耕地集约利用度的首要贡献来自于化肥、机械、农药等省工性劳动的大量使用，其次是资本投入和劳动力；耕地自然本底条件、耕地经济收益和劳动力生产率，与耕地集约度呈正相关，而耕地非农化效益与耕地利用集约度呈负相关。以粮食生产效应作为客观衡量主体意愿的标准，通过量化分析农业经营制度变化过程中主体的分化，探讨了农业经营主体分化对粮食生产的影响，发现其对粮食产量、农业全要素生产率具有显著正向影响，具有较高的同步性。研究区农业经营主体培育过程中，应该注重从经营制度设计、辅助政策与支持方式等方面进行探索和创新。