梯级水库群调度运行期设计洪水计算理论和方法

With the fast development of water resources and hydropower engineering projects, most of river basins have become or will form a cascade reservoir system, which significantly alters the natural runoff as well as spatial and temporal distribution of floods. Besides, many practical issues, such as planning and designing of water conservancy projects, identifing flood prevention standards need hydrological calculation. The dispatch decision making of reservoir group system also need design floods and characteristic water levers during operation period. As a result, how to adapt to the alterations of underlying surface conditions and river flow conditions, and how to take into account the interaction between the upstream and downstream reservoirs, are inevitable scientific issues for current water conservancy project planning and designing as well as reservoir operation and management. The proposed research project will comprehensively summarize and review the advancement of design flood estimation methods both at home and abroad. The new and statistically-based design flood estimation theory and method will be derived with analysis of floods encounter and regional composition laws.Then the flood quantiles and flood prevention safety standards at downstream section can be quantitatively estimated by considering the regulation of upstream reservoirs. As a consequence, this study will provide scientific and technique support both for making cascade reservoirs operation schemes, reducing flood prevention risks, and increasing water resources comprehensive utilization benifits. Furthermore, the research results can also provide theoretic basis and scientific references for revision and improvement of design flood guidelines for water resources and hydropower projects in China.

随着我国水电资源的快速开发和利用，大部分河流已经或即将形成梯级水库群格局，明显改变了河川天然径流及洪水的时程分配过程。如何适应这种下垫面条件及河道汇流条件的改变，充分考虑上游水库工程和水库群之间的相互影响，是当前水利工程规划设计和水库群调度运行管理中不可回避的科学问题。现有各水库大坝设计洪水以及推求的水位特征值，都是依据天然洪水系列资料推求计算得到的，是确保大坝安全的设计值。但在水库群的调度运行决策中，若能确定各水库调度运行期的设计洪水及汛期运行水位的上限值，将有利于降低水库预报调度的决策风险、大幅度提高洪水资源的综合利用效益。本研究基于流域洪水的遭遇和地区组成规律，探讨具有统计意义的水库群调度运行期设计洪水计算的新理论和新方法，定量估算上游水库群调蓄对下游断面设计洪水和防洪安全标准的影响，填补国内外在该领域研究的空白，为制定水库群科学调度方案提供理论依据与技术支撑。

分析流域洪水的遭遇和地区组成规律，提出了梯级水库运行期设计洪水计算的新理论和新方法，推导了基于Copula函数的最可能地区组成法、概率组合离散求和法和改进离散求和法，定量估算上游水库群调蓄对下游断面设计洪水的影响，比较论证各种设计洪水地区组成法的优缺点和实用性。主要结论包括：基于Copula函数的最可能地区组成法和改进离散求和法可直接推导公式，且无需作独立化处理；对于单座或2座水库，离散求和法和同频率地区组成法的适用条件分别为0<ρ≤0.2和ρ>0.7，改进离散求和法和最可能地区组成法没有限制条件；对于3座及以上的梯级水库群，最可能地区组成法可得到唯一最佳方案解。研究成果已经在长江三峡梯级水库、金沙江下游梯级水库、清江梯级水库群、汉江梯级水库群、广东北江流域及乐昌峡水库等应用，取得了巨大的防洪、发电、航运、供水等社会、经济和生态效益，并将为我国水利水电工程设计洪水计算规范的修订和制定水库群联合调度方案提供理论依据与技术支撑。..申请授权发明专利3件，发表学术论文35篇，其中SCI论文15篇，中文EI论文6篇。出版专著1部，参加国内外学术会议20人次。研究成果《长江上游梯级水库群多目标联合调度技术》获水利部2022年大禹科技进步奖特等奖；《金沙江梯级与三峡水库联合蓄水优化调度》获中国水力发电工程学会2020年度优秀论文一等奖，入选中国科学技术协会2022年度百篇优秀论文；《水库运行期设计洪水与汛期水位动态控制和提前蓄水技术》获武汉大学2022年学术成果奖一等奖；《金沙江下游梯级水库运行期设计洪水及汛控水位》和《三峡水库运行期设计洪水及汛控水位初探》分别评为《水科学进展》和《水利学报》年度优秀论文。..项目负责人郭生练教授入选全球前2%顶尖科学家“终身科学影响力排行榜（1960-2022）”和“2022年度科学影响力排行榜”两个榜单。周研来、杨光博士后分别被武汉大学、河海大学聘为教授，培养毕业博士4人、硕士4人。