山地灾害风险视角下川西南山区聚落空间重构的驱动机制研究

In the process of rapid urbanization, Mountain settlement space reconstruction is an issue which cannot be avoided. Mountain settlement space reconstruction must be carried out on the basis of a certain scientific cognition. Based on the spatial correlation between mountain disasters and settlement, the study on the driving mechanism of Sichuan southwest mountainous settlement space reconstruction in perspective of mountain disaster risk has an important theoretical and practical guiding significance to promote the sustainable development of the relationship between human and land in the mountainous area. Through the interpretation of three temporal (2000, 2010, 2015) high resolution satellite remote sensing images combined with ground survey data, dynamic spatial distribution hazard and landuse map of southwestern mountainous regions of Sichuan province were got. Based on those data, to find out the existing problems in the Sichuan southwest mountainous area, the analysis of the spatial conflict in the mountainous area which was coupled with the risk of mountain disaster was carried out. Through field investigation and in-home interviews, the first-hand information was got. Analyze the difference and commonness diagnostic between the mountain settlement space reconstruction feature and key driving factor. The mechanism of the driving mechanism of mountain settlement space reconstruction and the interaction mechanism between the factors of mountain settlement space reconstruction were clarified. Based on the multidimensional driving force, multiple binding, scenarios, build the mountain settlements space reconstruction model. Using the PLS path analysis models to achieve mountainous settlements space reconstruction simulation and optimization, finally Put forward control path with the implementation situation, the multi-objective optimization.

山区聚落空间重构问题是中国快速城镇化过程无法规避的现实。山区聚落空间重构必须在一定的科学认知基础上开展。基于山地灾害与山区聚落空间分布的空间关联性，从山地灾害风险视角开展川西南山区聚落空间重构的驱动机理研究，对于促进山区人地关系协调可持续发展具有重要的理论和实践指导意义。项目拟通过解译三个时相（2000年、2010年、2015年）高精度遥感影像结合地面踏勘数据，在获取山地灾害空间和土地利用动态分布数据的基础上，开展耦合山地灾害风险的山区聚落空间冲突分析，找出川西南山区聚落现存问题之所在；利用问卷调研获取一手数据，在甄别川西南山区典型聚落空间重构要素和关键驱动因子的差异性、共性基础上，阐明山区聚落空间重构的驱动机制和要素间的互馈作用机制；建立基于多维驱动力、多重约束力、多情景的山区聚落空间重构模型，利用PLS路径分析模型实现山区聚落空间重构优化模拟，最终提出实现多情景、多目标优化的调控路径。

山区聚落空间重构问题是中国快速城镇化过程无法规避的现实。川西南山区地质灾害频发，山区聚落空间重构必须在科学认知基础上开展。本研究从山地灾害风险的视角，研究川西南山区聚落空间重构的驱动机制。开展耦合山地灾害风险的山区聚落空间冲突分析，诊断川西南山区聚落现存问题；在甄别川西南山区典型聚落空间重构要素和关键驱动因子基础上，通过山区聚落空间重构模拟，提出优化调控路径。研究结果表明：（1）川西南山区地质灾害具有显著梯度格局特征，超过60%的灾害隐患点分布在中山区、22.23%的灾害隐患点分布在中低山区。解译的2000 年、2010 年、2015 年三期土地利用空间分布图反映出川西南山区聚落乡村聚落数量不仅基数大且增幅由强趋弱。（2）空间冲突测度显示研究区的空间开发强度逐年增加，建设空间对生态空间和农业空间干扰较为突出，其中农业空间受干扰程度最大、景观破碎度最高且转建设空间的指数最高。破碎度指数与空间冲突指数存在显著关系，在聚落空间重构过程中，斑块越破碎、生态系统越不稳定、越容易加剧空间冲突。（3）构建基于地质灾害阻滞力、生产文化凝聚力、生活文化凝聚力、发展阻碍力、外部吸引力的结构方程模型，识别驱动山区聚落空间重构关键要素。模型总量表的克龙巴赫α系数信度为0.70，满足Cronbach’s α值≥0.6的要求，信度较好。KMO值为0.781，通过了Bartlett球形检验。5大驱动力对农户进行乡村聚落空间重构意愿具有重要影响，彼此之间相互促进又相互制衡。（4）山区聚落空间重构是内生演变和外部助推的复杂过程。本研究提出基于格网的山区聚落质量评估模型，将聚落划分为I级、II级、III级、IV级吸引区。总体而言，山区乡村聚落总质量越高、吸引力越大、中心性越强，其空间支配地位越高，辐射吸引外围微型聚落向该区域集中。借助引力模型得出聚落引力矩阵，模拟山区聚落空间重构，对小型聚落重新布局，提出空间优化调整路径，为山区聚落空间重构提供科学依据，有效促进山区聚落空间格局功能合理、生态宜居、健康有序可持续。