区域自然灾害模糊风险算法及其在减灾方案筛选中的应用

Facing the fact that it is impossible to precisely estimate probability risks of natural disasters, the direction of this project is to set up an algorithm theory of fuzzy risks of natural disasters and study its effect in practical cases. The project focuses on studying fuzzy uncertainty of risks in regional natural disasters, seeking for some basic ways to express fuzzy risks, discussing the model that is used in calculating fuzzy risks, and analyzing the reliability of the model, and verifying its practicability in sifting out reduction-disaster alternatives. The project overall studies the basic contents of risk analysis of natural disasters and produces a theory and some methods for analyzing risk of natural disasters, where the basic principles of risk analysis of natural disasters is the core, and the theories and methods of fuzzy system recognition is regarded as tools. This project gives for the first time a simple formula without any α-cuts computation to obtain a crisp value of the fuzzy expected value directly from a fuzzy probability distribution. Then, executing computer simulation experiments, we totally demonstrate that the interior-outer-set model for calculating fuzzy risk is reliable. After demonstrating that the method of information distribution can raise the work efficiency of risk assessment about 28%, and observing that the interior-outer-set model is useful to correctly order the alternatives for reduction disaster in Huarong county of Hunan province, then, this project justifies that the methods of fuzzy system recognition have more advantages of improving precision in risk recognition and providing more information in sifting out reduction-disaster alternatives. Besides, this project suggests 3 important concepts: information matrix, equivalent length of a fuzzy set, fuzzy histogram, and suggests a framework for building intelligent information-processing systems. This project studies the risk factors of earthquake disaster and risk evaluating indexes, studies the fuzzy relationship between some factors (such as lithology, depth, and thickness of the stratum) and the earthquake disaster degree, studies compatibility function for risk controlling. Finally, this project creates a theory of calculating fuzzy risks of natural disasters and gives some practical methods, which is constituted of information matrix framework, information diffusion technology and interior-outer-set model. This project provides a significant basis to produce a new theory serving for risk zoning of natural disasters.

研究区域自然灾害风险的模糊不确定性,探讨模糊风险的基本表述形式,建立自然灾害风险评估的模糊风险计算里路和实用方法.用区域自然灾害案例和计算机仿真试验验证模糊风险算ǖ目尚行院推拦澜峁目煽啃?将模糊风险评估结果作为减灾方案的柔性约束条件,对减灾桨附猩秆?为提高自然灾害风险管理的经济效益,保障可持续发展提供帮助..