人地反馈机制下云南高原山地农户的农业自然灾害风险感知与减灾参与研究

This study selects random samples among Yunnan plateau mountain villages and rural households and establish long-term observation points, to conduct a comprehensive follow-up survey of agricultural natural disasters system. From the perspective of Human-Natural Interaction, models were built based on various theories and techniques, such as local theory, cultural theory, fuzzy math and utility analysis. Our plan study is as follow: Firstly, the comprehensive assessment of agricultural natural disasters about the different villages and families. Secondly, we analyzed different factors which affect the risk perception-behavior of agricultural natural disasters of households, such as the natural environment, personality variables and presence, subjective attitude and factors such as psychology, society, cultures and so on, to study the feedback mechanisms in the catastrophe, perception - behavior subsystem of Yunnan plateau and evaluation of the households' capabilities of the agricultural disaster risk perception and disaster reduction. Thirdly, integration of the comprehensive risk assessment of agricultural disasters, family disasters and the perception-behaviorial studies of households, to conduct the study of the interplay of the internal relations of the agricultural natural disaster system. Fouthly, we studied on the type classification and spatial distribution pattern form the respect of villages, by means of disaster risk perception, disaster reduction ability of rural households, which reveals in-depth feedback mechanism of human natural interactions of regional natural disaster system. Finally, some suggestions were proposed to strengthen the abilities of risk perception of agricultural disasters, and abilities to participate in disaster reduction of the households living on Yunnan plateau.

在云南高原山地选择样本村落和农户家庭，建立长期观察点，开展农业自然灾害系统全面调查与跟踪研究。从人地相互作用视角，应用地方理论、文化理论、模糊数学及效用分析等多种理论与技术手段，构建模型。开展：第一，村落层次的农业灾害综合风险评价，和农户家庭层面的农业灾情评价；第二，分析影响农户自然灾害风险感知-行为的客观自然环境因素、个性变量因素、主观态度和心理因素、社会文化因素等多种因素，研究云南高原山地微区域农业灾害系统的灾变-感知-行为子系统内部反馈机制，评价农户家庭农业灾害风险感知与减灾参与能力；第三，综合农业灾害综合风险、家庭灾情评估与感知-减灾行为研究，研究农业灾害系统内部的相互作用。第四，研究村落层面农户灾害风险感知能力、减灾参与能力的类型划分及空间分布格局，深入揭示区域自然灾害系统人地相互作用的反馈机制。第五。提出加强云南高原山地农户家庭灾害感知能力和减灾参与能力建设的一些建议。

项目针对云南高原山地农业灾情和农业灾害风险特点，开展微地域农业灾害灾变-农户感知-应灾行为及其地域规律研究。分析人-地-气系统多因素耦合关联效应，研究灾变-感知-行为系统内部相互作用机制，评估农业灾情或灾害风险，及农户灾害风险感知能力及其应灾行为响应；揭示不同县域、村域及不同生产经营类型农户的感知-应灾行为空间格局；提出加强农户家庭灾害感知能力和应灾参与能力建设的途径或建议。研究中，建立多种评估指标体系。通过效用曲线提取心理效用期望值、易损度指数的主成分分析模型、评估旱灾脆弱性的混合BP神经网络模型和模糊综合评价模型，评估村落旱灾灾情的BP神经网络模型及农户家庭灾情的物元模型等。构建测量量表，及测评风险感知力的权重模型、TOPSIS模型和感知生态位模型，风险承受力的模糊综合评价模型等；建立综合权重模型、系统聚类模型、Fisher判别方程；应灾响应行为有效性的层次分析模型和TOPSIS模型；多重人性假设下农业保险或农户种植决策的动态博弈模型等。从定性与定量、感知与行为转换控制等角度，研究农户农业灾害风险感知、风险态度、应灾行为等及其关联性。首次尝试将地域人群（或农户）心理效应等指标引入灾情或灾害风险评估中；重视将农户地方感、风险思维定势、风险态度等主观情感与心理效应，社会交互作用，农户生产经营类型等因素，纳入个体风险感知能力和风险承受能力的测评体系中。所构建的多种测评指标体系及评估技术模型，既是针对不同灾种研究的需要，也是出于探索性研究的需要。许多模型方法，是首次运用于此类问题研究领域。基于灾害风险的作物种植结构优化调整、农户种植决策研究，是一种衔接自然灾害风险分析研究成果与农业持续发展现实需求的研究尝试。有限理性下的农户种植行为、政策性农业保险购买行为等的博弈研究，切合当前行为经济学领域的研究热点，具有一定的理论和实践价值。