国防支出与经济增长的理论拓展和实证研究

There are two core issues in defence economics. Firstly, how many resources should be allocated to defence spending? Secondly, what are the effects of defence spending on economic growth? Under globalization, international and domestic security status is changing and the influence of non-traditional security become more and more important. By applying the neoclassical demand theory of military expenditure, this project tries to re-analyze all factors that affect military expenditure, including traditional factors (e.g. traditional security, economic and politics factors)and new factors (e.g. trade security, energy and environment security, terrorism, etc.). Then this project integrates and extends the framework stemming from growth theories to analyze the defence-growth nexus. Furthermore, it assesses how the different components of military expenditure affect the economic growth. In general, this project researches the demand for military expenditure, the effect of total military expenditure and its major subcomponents on the economic growth, which provides both theoretical and empirical contributions to the defence economics literature. Especially, this project carries out a systematic analysis on Chinese demand for military expenditure and the relationship between defence and economic growth in China. This systematic analysis will provide a guideline for the demand-led allocating process of military expenditure and it is also very important for balancing defence development and economic development.

国家将多少数量的经济资源配置到国防用途，配置的国防支出会对经济增长产生什么样的影响是国防经济学研究的核心问题。针对全球化背景下，国际与国内安全形势不断变化，非传统安全影响日益增加的态势，本项目在新古典主义国防支出需求理论框架下，对影响国防支出需求的因素重新进行探索和评估，以理解和分析决定国防支出需求的传统因素(如安全、经济、政治等因素）和新因素（如贸易安全、能源与环境安全、恐怖主义等非传统安全因素）。而后，融合和扩展经济增长理论的成果，聚焦国防支出对经济增长的研究，并进一步探讨国防支出构成对经济增长的影响。本项目对国防支出需求、国防支出与经济增长的研究，丰富了国防经济领域的理论成果，并提供了科学的实证检验依据。其中，我国国防支出需求和国防支出与经济增长关系的系统研究，对完善需求引导国防资源配置及统筹国防发展与经济发展有着重要的现实意义。

国家将多少数量的经济资源配置到国防用途，配置的国防支出会对经济增长产生什么样的影响是国防经济学研究的核心问题。本项目在新古典主义国防支出需求理论框架下，对影响国防支出需求的新因素重新进行探索和评估，并以全球、印度与中国作为样本，实证检验了影响国防支出需求的传统因素(如安全、经济、政治等因素）和新因素（如收入差距、恐怖主义等非传统安全因素）。而后，融合和扩展经济增长理论的成果，聚焦国防支出对经济增长的研究，并进一步探讨了国防支出构成（军事人员开支、国防装备、国防研发以及作战与维持支出）对经济增长的影响。本项目对国防支出需求、国防支出与经济增长的研究，丰富了国防经济领域的理论成果，并提供了科学的实证检验依据。其中，我国国防支出需求和国防支出与经济增长关系的系统研究，对完善需求引导国防资源配置、推进军民融合深度发展、实现经济建设和国防建设融合发展，具有重要的现实意义和广泛的应用前景。