有效税率结构与区域经济增长：理论、实证和路径选择研究

The regional tax burden and the non-equilibrium of the regional economic development has reached a broad consensus in the academic.The concrete manifestation is that the degree of economic development of the east is higher than the west's,while the tax burden is totally opposite .In order to enrich theory of non-equilibrium of regional economic development and strengthen the management of regional tax burden,this project starts a new research on the imbalance of regional tax burden from the following aspects:(1)Using endogenous economic growth model,clarifies the economic growth effects of the tax burden in the theory and Provides a theoretical basis for subsequent empirical research.(2)Measuring the regional labor income, capital income and the effective tax rate of consumption expenditures,hoping to reflect the tax burden authenticly.(4) using the PVAR model to examine the structural impact of effective tax rate on the long-term dynamic economic growth.By building a panel data fixed effect model and random effects models examined the reasons for non-equilibrium of regional tax burden and the of regional economic development.Finally,basing on the non-balanced objective facts,this reseach proposed:the effective way to coordinate regional tax burden and regional economic development is that guiding elements transfer interregional reasonablely,then to realize a relatively balanced distribution of factor endowments progressively.

区域税负与地区经济发展失衡在学术界已经达成广泛共识，具体体现为经济发展程度东高西低，税负水平西高东低。为进一步丰富区域税负失衡理论，强化区域税负管理，本项目从以下几个方面对区域税负失衡进行重新研究：（1）借助内生经济增长模型，从理论上厘清税收负担的经济增长效应，为后续的实证研究提供了理论支持。（2）分别测算区域劳动收入、资本收入和消费支出的有效税率，以期真实反映其税收负担情况，并运用PVAR模型考察了有效税率的结构性冲击对经济增长的长期动态影响。（3）通过构建面板数据的固定效应模型和随机效应模型，研究我国区域税负与地区经济发展失衡的原因。最后，基于非均衡的客观事实，本研究提出：协调区域税负与地区经济发展的有效路径在于合理引导要素的跨域流动，逐步实现要素禀赋分布的相对均衡。

税率结构与区域经济增长失衡是影响区域经济协调发展的重要原因之一。以劳动收入税、资本收入税和消费支出税作为划分税率结构的依据，为研究税率结构与区域经济增长失衡提供了新的出发点。项目对研究问题作出了以下边际贡献：首先，改进了有效税率测算的税种分摊方法，使测算方法和结果更加逼近现实；其次，在清晰考察税率结构变动趋势的基础上，运用DSGE、PVAR等动态模型刻画了税率结构变动与区域经济增长之间的经验关系，并在理论上分析了可能的影响机理；再次，运用固定效应模型，将理论分析与经验数据结合，探索了税率结构与区域经济增长失衡的原因；最后，基于有效税率的视角，提出了促进区域经济协调发展的路径选择。