西北乡村人地系统脆弱性的社会-生态整合研究

By integrating vulnerability of man-land systems with resilience of social-ecological systems, taking rural area in Northwestern China as study area and dividing vulnerability of rural man-land systems into three dimensions, i.e., vulnerability of rural social-ecological systems, resilience of rural community and farmer household livelihoods, this research aims to build a panoramically study on man-land relationship in the development of rural area in Northwestern China within the framework of cross-scale(county-town and village community-farmer household) and multi-factor comprehensive research. First, this research will set up a spatial explicit resilience-vulnerability (SERV) model to quantitatively study the vulnerability of man-land systems and its spatial differentiation. Second, by introducing the norm and index system of social-economic connectivity combined with questionnaire survey on typical communities (towns and villages level) and farmer household livelihoods, this research will approach the corresponding relations among vulnerability of rural man-land systems, community resilience and adaptive capacity of farmer households, and further reveal influencing factors and dynamic mechanism of rural vulnerability - resilience. Last, based on multi-stakeholder (farmers, key people and scholars) interviews and surveys, integrating with Scenario Analysis, this research will focus on understanding the scenario logic of rural development in the future. This research could theoretically offer new perspectives and methods for rural development and sustainability research in ecological vulnerable region, and practically provide related information for public policy making in rural Northwestern China.

将人地系统脆弱性与与社会-生态系统恢复力思维相结合，以西北乡村地区为对象，把乡村人地系统脆弱性分解为乡村社会-生态系统脆弱性、乡村社区恢复力和农户生计三个维度，通过跨尺度（县域-乡镇社区-农户）和多要素的“综合”，"全景式”理解西北地区乡村发展中的人地关系。首先，构建显式空间脆弱性-恢复力（SERV）模型，定量测度人地系统脆弱性及其空间分异；进而，引入社会经济连通度的概念和指标体系，通过典型社区（乡镇和村落）和农户生计调查，阐明社区恢复力与农户生计之间的关联，解析乡村人地系统脆弱性、社区恢复力与农户适应能力之间的对应关系，揭示乡村脆弱性-恢复力的影响因素和动力机制；最后，运用情景分析方法，基于多利益主体（农户、关键人物和学者）访谈与调查，理解未来乡村发展的情景逻辑。本研究理论上可为生态脆弱地区乡村可持续性发展提供新视角和方法，实践上可为西北乡村社区发展政策制订提供依据。

将人地系统脆弱性与社会—生态系统恢复力思维相结合，选取西北典型案例区，整合农户问卷（访谈）数据、社会经济统计数据、遥感数据以及地理空间数据，对多重因素作用下，乡村社会—生态系统的脆弱性、适应能力和恢复力及其驱动机制，进行了系统研究。通过数理方法、GIS技术与社会调查相结合，构建了完整的乡村社会—生态系统脆弱性与适应性分析框架，对西北地区乡村进行了多尺度的（农户、村域、县域）的脆弱性与恢复力评估，为相关政策方针的制定提供借鉴参考。项目的主要研究成果如下：. （1）以旱作农业的榆中县为例，对干旱脆弱性的时空演化进行探究；利用改进的干旱经济损失估算模型，从暴露、敏感性和适应能力三个维度，定量刻画了农户生计脆弱性及其适应机理。（2）以陕北榆林市为例，对VSD框架和SERV模型进行整合，构建了指标体系，评估榆林市社会—生态系统脆弱性空间分异特征及演化趋势；采用OWA多准则算法，对不同发展导向下社会—生态系统脆弱性差异进行预测。（3）以甘肃民勤绿洲为例，将可持续性生计与适应性相结合，提出一个生计适应性分析框架。构建了干旱环境胁迫下的农户适应能力评价指标体系，评估不同适应类型农户的适应能力，定量分析了农户生计适应性的影响因素。（4）以黄土高原长武县洪家镇为典型案例，以村域尺度社会—生态系统体制变化为切入点，揭示了当地乡村转型的关键变量，重点探讨农户尺度的影响因素及其稳健性。（5）以陕南秦巴山地为贫困案例区，从县域尺度对陕南秦巴山区可持续生计安全进行评价，定量分析其动力机制与空间集聚性；从可持续生计视角出发，对乡村旅游发展影响下农户与社区生计进行了研究。