半干旱地区乡村转型与农户可持续生计

The reform and opening policy of China has witnessed great changes on man-land relationships in rural China. In this program, in order to explore how these changes influence rural sustainability in Northwest China, We keep focus on rural transformation systematically with a “vulnerability-resilience” framework and a logical axis of “man-land relationship evolution - rural transformation- farmer’s livelihood adaptation”. Firstly, considering regime shifts, we make a spatio- temporal evolutional analysis on the key variables of rural system, such as population, economy and land-use, in order to identify and express the rural state and controlling variables of local rural regime shift. Secondly, according to adaptation theory, we design and carry out peasant household investigation, aiming at deciding farmer’s adaptive capability and responses to arid environment, through which, we further discover the interactive relations between farmer’s livelihood resilience and rural transformation, thus conclude the rural transformation dynamics influenced by coupled regime shifts and livelihood adaptation. Finally, we want to uncover the adaptive evolutional characteristics of rural man-land relationships, and simulate some future developmental scenarios in semi-arid areas. This program has two main contributions, on one side, a research paradigm for rural transformation from the resilience thinking will be constructed; on the other side, practical suggestions to sustainability assessment on man-land relationships in vulnerable-environmental areas, and policy of taking targeted measures in poverty alleviation will be provided.

改革开放以来，西北乡村人地关系发生了重大变化。为评估这种变化对乡村可持续性的影响，运用脆弱性-恢复力分析框架，选取长武、榆中和民勤三个典型案例区，从县域/社区/农户三个尺度，按照“干旱人地关系演变-乡村转型-农户生计适应”的逻辑轴线，对乡村转型发展进行系统研究。首先，从体制转换入手，对乡村人口，经济和土地利用等敏感变量的时空演变进行分析，定量辨识和解析乡村体制的状态特征和控制变量；进而，以适应性理论为指导，通过农户调查，明确农户对干旱环境的适应能力和响应过程，探索农户生计恢复力与乡村转型之间的互馈关系，总结乡村体制要素变化和农户生计适应耦合作用下的乡村转型机理；最后，剖析干旱环境下乡村人地关系的适应性演化特征，构建未来发展情景，并提出相应对策。项目预期理论上可构建一个恢复力视角的乡村转型研究范式，实践上为半干旱地区人地关系可持续性评估和“精准扶贫”政策提供依据。

将社会-生态系统脆弱性-恢复力理论框架与乡村转型研究结合起来，整合调查问卷、社会经济数据、遥感数据和地理空间数据，对乡村转型与农户可持续生计进行了系统研究。主要研究成果包括：(1) 以黄土高原苹果优生区为例，从乡村人口发展度、经济发展度和农业生产发展度三个维度，对乡村转型发展程度进行了定量评价，构建了乡村演化路径，明确了乡村转型发展的影响因素和关键驱动力。从人居环境变化视角解构乡村转型发展，探索了陕北佳县1980年以来人居环境脆弱性演变的路径及时空分异特征。 (2)以秦巴山区为例，构建了贫困地区乡村恢复力评价指标体系，测度了山区乡村恢复力指数，并辨识影响乡村振兴的关键因素；对农户多维贫困进行了测度，阐明了山地乡村多维贫困的影响因素和农户生计策略。 (3)对干旱胁迫下的农户生计恢复力进行了比较系统的研究，以民勤县为例，按照调整的VSD模型构建生计脆弱性的分析框架，识别农户生计脆弱性形成的主要因素，总结了农户生计的适应方式；探讨了干旱环境下农户生计适应行为与策略，明确了农户生计适应行为的内外部因素；从缓冲能力、自组织能力和学习能力三个方面，构建了黄土高原农户生计恢复力的指标体系并进行测度，基于此提出了农户生计建设的路径。