人力资本配置偏向公共部门对经济发展的影响研究：理论、机制与经验证据

The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China made it clear that at present, our economy has shifted from rapid growth to a high-quality development stage, which requires that we must promote quality change, efficiency change and dynamic change in economic development. This puts forward higher requirements on our country's human capital. However, at present, the level of human capital in our country is still very low, and there are still serious human capital misallocation. One of the main manifestations is the allocation of talented people towards the public sector. This project intends to make use of the individual’s occupational and educational data in the population and economic census data to construct indicators of the allocation of talent among the public and private sectors in every region. By using the macroeconomic and micro-enterprises data, we will systematically examine the impact of talent allocation biased towards the public sector on the economic development, including economic growth, total factor productivity growth and entrepreneurship. Further, this project intends to explore the reasons why the allocation of talents in China is biased towards the public sector, with a focus on the impact of city size and house prices on individual’s occupation choice and thus on the allocation of talent between the public and private sectors. This project study is expected to answer the "human capital paradox" that China's average years of schooling have no positive impact on economic development and put forward a new mechanism of city size and housing price impact on economic development through talent allocation, which has certain theoretical and practical significance.

党的“十九大”报告明确指出，当前我国经济已由高速增长转向高质量发展阶段，这要求我们必须推动经济发展质量变革、效率变革和动力变革。这对我国的人力资本提出了更高要求。但是当前我国的人力资本水平还很低，且有限的人力资本还存在严重的误配置，优秀人才偏向公共部门配置便是表现之一。本项目拟利用人口和经济普查数据中个体职业和教育水平的数据，构造各地区人才在公共部门和私人部门间的配置情况指标，结合宏观经济和微观企业数据，系统考察中国人才偏向公共部门配置对经济发展，包括经济增长、全要素生产率和企业家精神的影响。进一步，本项目还拟从城市经济学视角出发，考察城市规模和房价这两个最重要的城市特征对个体择业，进而对人才在公共部门和私人部门间配置的影响。本项目研究有望回答中国平均教育年限对经济发展无正向影响的“人力资本悖论”，并提出城市规模和房价通过人才配置影响经济发展的新机制，具有一定的理论和现实意义。

党的“十九大”报告明确指出，当前我国经济已由高速增长转向高质量发展阶段，这要求我们必须推动经济发展质量变革、效率变革和动力变革。这对我国的人力资本提出了更高要求。但是当前我国的人力资本水平还很低，且有限的人力资本还存在严重的误配置，优秀人才偏向公共部门配置便是表现之一。本项目利用人口和经济普查数据中个体职业和教育水平的数据，构造各地区人才在公共部门和私人部门间的配置情况指标，结合宏观经济和微观企业数据，考察中国人才偏向公共部门配置的影响因素及其对经济发展的影响。本项目的主要发现有：第一、贸易开放程度的提高可以显著降低个体进入公共部门就业的概率，且受教育程度越高的个体降低得越多，主要原因在于开放使得公共部门的寻租减少，以及私人部门的教育回报率提高。第二、随着城市人口规模的增大，受教育程度越高的个体进入公共部门就业的概率降低越多，这主要是由城市规模增大带来的公共部门规模节约和私人部门就业的相对吸引力提高造成的。第三、人才配置越偏向公共部门，当地企业的专利产出越少，机制分析显示，人才配置越偏向公共部门的地区，当地企业的研发投资越少，研发效率越低。这些发现可以为当下中国经济转向高质量发展阶段的相关政策制定提供参考。