基于水资源系统的广义干旱风险评价与风险区划研究

With the increasing impact of climate change and human activities, drought, as the extreme process in water cycle, happens in more area with higher frequency, and now it endangers the water and ecology security in river basin. The occurrences of drought events usually contain dual characteristics: determinacy and randomness. It should take a risk model on which is based on "natural-artificial" dualistic water cycle theory, to cope with this problem. From the perspective of the water resources system, the project proposes a connotation and a quantitative evaluation method to generalized drought. Haihe Basin with high frequency will be studied in this research to build a unitary driver model of generalized drought evolution after combining the influence characteristics with drought events, like the change of climate, underlying conditions and hydro projects (group),and the effects of individual influence characteristics will be quantitatively identified . After combining the dual characteristics of drought events, the risk assessment index systems, assessment methods and generalized drought risks zoning methods will be proposed based on 3S technology, and the Haihe Basin generalized drought risk zoning map will also be drew. Building the Water integration management mode with the normal and extreme processes in water cycle and hydro projects (group) optimize allocation by using allocation of water resources technology as a key tool. With this project, it will be studied from both perspectives of theories and technologies to cope with the drought problems in changing environment, and provide scientific basis to deal with drought problems in Haihe Basin.

作为水循环过程的一类极值过程，干旱随着气候变化和人类活动影响的深入，呈现出广发频发态势，危及到流域的水安全和生态安全。干旱事件的发生具有确定性和随机性的双重特性，需在遵循"自然-人工"二元水循环原理的基础上，采用风险模式进行应对。本项目拟从水资源系统的角度，提出广义干旱的内涵及定量化评价方法；并以干旱事件频发的海河流域为研究区，结合气候变化、下垫面条件改变、水利工程（群）等对干旱事件的影响特性，构建广义干旱演变的整体驱动模式，并定量识别其驱动机制；结合干旱事件演变的确定性和随机性特征，提出广义干旱风险评价指标体系、评价方法与基于3S技术的广义干旱风险区划方法，并绘制海河流域广义干旱风险区划图；以水资源配置技术为关键支撑，提出常态与极值过程相结合的水资源集合管理模式及水利工程（群）优化配置模式。通过本项目研究，将进一步发展变化环境下干旱应对理论与技术，并为海河流域干旱综合应对提供科学依据。

本项目从水资源系统的角度，围绕变化环境下干旱综合应对的重大实践需求，以海河流域为研究区，构建了海河流域气候变化背景下干旱灾害识别及风险应对理论与方法体系，深入开展气候变化对海河流域干旱灾害的驱动机制研究，并据此进行区域干旱灾害的风险评估与风险综合应对，具体内容如下：1）海河流域多尺度干旱灾害演变规律；2）气候变化对海河流域干旱事件演变的驱动机制；3）气候变化背景下海河流域干旱灾害风险评估与预估；4）海河流域干旱灾害风险区划及综合应对。通过本研究发展了1套理论（基于水资源系统的广义干旱风险评价与应对理论），构建了2套指标（广义干旱定量化评价指标与风险评价指标），提出了3种方法（广义干旱定量化评价方法、风险评价方法与风险区划方法），建立了2套模式（广义干旱驱动模式与整体风险应对模式）。在项目研究过程中，发表33篇学术论文，其中SCI 16篇；出版专著2部；授权专利22项，其中发明专利4项；培养博士后1名，博士研究生3名，硕士研究生5名。通过本项目研究，将进一步发展变化环境下干旱应对理论与技术，并为海河流域干旱综合应对提供科学依据。