基于系统动力学-Copula分析的流域水资源利用多重风险评价

In this project, an integrated approach will be advanced for assessing multi-dimension risks of watersheds considering complicated nexus of water supply, hydropower generation, and environmental protection under stochastic environmental conditions (e.g., water demands, electricity demands, and water inflow). Also, jointed distribution functions for the complicated nexus will be proposed through the adoption of fuzzy sets, and Copula function. The proposed approach and models will be applied for compromising decision-making related to water supply, hydropower generation, and environmental protection in a river basin. Research of this project will be undertaken through interdisciplinary studies such as hydrological modeling, risk assessment, and uncertainty analysis. This research entails: a) nexus analysis of spatial distribution characteristics in water-resource utilization, hydropower generation and environmental protection for a watershed, b) forecast of water resources utilization and the associated ecological effects based on methods of systems dynamics, factors analysis, and statistical analysis, c) vulnerability assessment and risk identification evaluation of the watershed, through which a specific risk-control mechanism of watershed management will be illuminated, d) development of jointed distribution functions for analyzing multi-dimension risks in watersheds based on Copula analysis and uncertainty analysis methods such as fuzzy sets, and e) application of the integrated multi-dimension risk model for demonstrating the applicability of the methodology. This research will contribute significantly to knowledge advancement and theoretical development related to multi-dimension risk-control management at the watershed scale, representing innovations in the nexus analysis of hydropower generation, water supply, environmental protection. The study results will also provide solid scientific basis for watershed integrated management, enhancing China's emerging leadership role in these research areas.

本研究利用系统动力学解析流域供水-发电-环境保护等水资源多目标利用之间的复杂互馈关系，建立指标体系进行脆弱性分析，据此识别和研判流域不同脆弱性区域的主要风险类型及其排序与组合，进而开发基于Copula分析模糊-随机方法评价流域多重风险及其耦合风险，形成基于系统动力学-Copula分析的流域多重风险识别和评估研究框架。进而开展案例研究，为有效解决流域特别是水资源多目标利用问题提供方法和理论支持，为协调当地社会、经济、环境和生态对水资源的冲突乃至各自发展提供决策支持。研究将涵盖流域水文和水生态模型、不确定分析方法、多重风险识别和评估等多学科、多领域方法与技术，提出流域多重风险辨识和评估模型，系统反映供水、发电、环境等多目标互馈系统的复杂性。

流域内水资源利用的多个目标强烈相关、互相制约，流域水资源管理需要考虑多目标利用之间带来的多重风险及其耦合过程。通过对流域水资源利用下多目标与外部环境系统要素之间的因果关系和反馈回路进行解析，模拟流域未来气候变化和人类活动影响下的可供水量，预测不同情景下流域多目标用水需求动态，识别了流域水资源多目标利用下的风险类别和热点区域，确定了相应的风险受体，提出了基于Copula 函数的流域多重风险耦合评价方法，开发了多重不确定性条件下流域水资源利用多重风险协同管理模型，形成了基于系统动力学-Copula分析的流域多重风险识别和评估的方法和理论体系。其研究成果为协调流域社会、经济、环境和生态对水资源的冲突提供方法支撑和决策支持。