高强度围填海区域景观弹性测度与可持续转型途径研究

That would exert severely high impacts on the interactions of coastal landscape pattern, water quality and sedimentary environment, as well as threaten the sustainability of coastal landscape system. Our project applies a new methodology to measure the coastal landscape resilience by integrated landscape spatial analysis, environmental observation and monitoring with coupled model which will be utilized to (1) define landscape resilience of interaction areas and identify specified resilience; (2) shape the observation or evaluation system on the basis of specified resilience, general resilience and transformability; (3) explore dynamic mechanism of the evolution of landscape resilience; (4) facilitate resilience through transformation such as adaptation of the construction of critical green infrastructures in reclamation areas. The project will pursue two major research questions: How do we determine and identify specified resilience which have effects on coastal landscape resilience in sedimentary environment of reclamation areas? How do we measure or assess landscape resilience and support to practice on transformation? The unique contribution of this research is the quantitative integration of advanced resilient analysis and modeling of coupled process, making comparison of multiple cases. This research is aimed to establish a “Risk-Resilience-Transformation” theory and be conducted on national or global coastal areas on landscape and resilience topic, provide methodologies of landscape resilience assessment and transformation to decision makers.

大规模、高强度的围填海活动在带动海岸带区域社会经济发展的同时也引发该区域景观格局、水质环境及沉积环境的负面效应凸显，严重降低了海岸带景观系统的可持续性。本项目拟采用景观空间分析、环境地学观测/监测与耦合模型模拟相结合的方法，通过界定围填海区域景观弹性系统与提取关键特定弹性因子，运用围填海区域景观弹性测度新方法，基于景观-沉积环境-水质环境耦合过程建立关键特定弹性因子/一般弹性/转型能力的一体化监测/评价系统，探索高强度围填海活动中典型海岸带景观系统弹性演进的动力机制及其转型途径。最终回答：在围填海区域的沉积环境中，是否存在及如何识别影响景观弹性系统的关键特定弹性因子？围填海区域景观弹性特征如何测度与评价？本研究通过对围填海区域进行多案例的对比，可为海岸带相关科学研究和管理提供方法支持，也有望为人地系统“风险-弹性-转型”理论体系做出贡献。

围填海地区是海陆交互作用区，是陆海统筹中需要重点关注的区域，其区域弹性特征是海岸带系统适应景观剧烈变化所带来生态环境影响的关键。本研究针对高强度围填海活动下的典型海岸带城市案例区，确定关键特定弹性因子以表征区域土地与水资源供需平衡，饮用水源水质达标，生物多样性提升等关键功能，结合胡克定律评价弹性因子的时空动态变化，采用突变理论和快慢变量识别系统弹性下降的主控因子以及预警信号。主要结论如下：（1）海岸带土地-水-生物多样性联结系统是研究围填海影响下景观弹性系统特征的重要线索。一般弹性因子包括围填海活动、建成区、水产养殖区在内的土地系统指标，入海污染物排放总量、海水水质达标率、赤潮发生频次的水系统指标，归一化植被指数、湿地面积、珍稀物种丰富度、浮游动植物物种丰富度的生物多样性系统指标。（2）针对围填海及其关联效应对海岸带生态系统干扰，构建基于应力-应变曲线的系统弹性测度新方法，在案例区应用并开展适应性循环机制研究，发现整体提升-整体退化-波动稳定-功能再次提升的弹性演进规律，并进一步揭示出不透水面、围填海面积、建成区面积等特定弹性因子造成系统弹性退化（水质水量下降、生物多样性丧失）的关联效应新机制。（3）围填海管控、陆源污染控制、物种及其栖息地保护、陆海统筹及联结管理是体现区域可持续转型能力的重要方面，围填海区域景观生态红线划分有助于对围填海区域中具有生态价值的湿地进行积极人工干预，开展二次生态保护和抢救性保护。部分成果基于案例城市向我国东部海岸带区域做了适度拓展研究。