基于生态系统服务的半封闭海湾人类活动累积效应评价与调控

Coastal sea areas feature with environmental sensitivity, ecological vulnerability and socio-economic significance, therefore are important in the agenda of sustainable development. One of the key stresses for coastal sea areas in China is the increasing human activities such as coastal reclamation, coastal tourism, ports and shipping, marine aquaculture and fishing, and land-based pollution etc.. In this study, cumulative effect assessment (CEA) and its regulation is studied in the scope of human geography relationship...Based on the theories of social-ecology systems (SESs) and complex ecosystem, the concept of ecosystem services is introduced as the endpoints of cumulative effects assessment, to establish a Drivers-Pressures-States-Ecosystem Services-Responses (DPSER) framework, which is better for bridging science and management of marine environment. ..Among other methods, system dynamics models will be applied to identify and quantify the sources and pathways of the cumulative effects of human activities. ..With the endpoint of ecosystem services, indicators of marine environmental monitoring, social-economy statistics, social investigation and other research measures will be selected for cumulative effect assessment of coastal human activities. Then relevant quantified models to calculate the above various level indicators will be established. ..Marxan with Zones will be applied for the marine spatial planning through expanding the cost matrix to include the value changes of ecosystem services due to the cumulative effects of coastal human activities, and expanding the constraint conditions to directly include the features relevant to marine environmental cumulative effects. ..The above theories and methodologies will be applied to Xiamen Seas to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed cumulative effects assessment methodologies...The results are expected to contribute to the methodological evolvement of the marine environmental cumulative effects assessment of coastal human activities and its regulation.

人类活动海洋环境累积效应的评价与调控是海岸带人地关系研究重要议题。本项目以填海造地、港口航运、滨海旅游、养殖捕捞、陆源排污等活动为对象，以社会-生态系统和复合生态系统为理论指导，应用系统动力学等方法，识别并量化累积效应发生机制和作用途径，引进生态系统服务（ecosystem services）作为累积效应评价终点，构建驱动力-压力-状态-生态系统服务-响应（DPSER）分析框架；系统整合海洋环境监测、社会经济统计、社会调查和其它研究性指标，提取人类活动海洋环境累积效应研究关键指标，建立相应量化评价方法和模型；以Marxan with Zones为工具，通过其成本矩阵和要素类型扩展，将基于生态系统服务的累积效应评价结果引入海洋空间规划，通过空间布局优化调控累积效应；以厦门湾为案例研究海域，进行人类活动累积效应评价方法和调控途径实证研究。预期成果将有利于促进海洋环境科学研究和管理决策有效连接。

半封闭海湾特殊地理特征及其高强度人类活动，迫切需要通过正确评价累积效应提高科学认识，提出可行调控路径。本项目围绕半封闭海湾人类活动累积效应，从4个方面开展研究，主要结果如下：（1）半封闭海湾人类活动类型识别、强度表征及其关系量化：基于活动类型特征及其全生命周期分析，根据输入（对海洋资源的依存、获取）、输出（污染排放、生境扰动）性质和大小，建立各人类活动强度及其冲突标准化赋值方法。（2）以典型海洋生物生境为指标的河口海湾人类活动累积效应：在印尼沿岸35个区开展调查，通过渔民社区调查获得人类活动对鲎生境胁迫的一手数据，对东加里曼丹Teritip海滩三种亚洲鲎的孵化地生境质量进行样方调查，比较不同环境参数对其空间分布的影响；在福建漳江口开展滨海鸟类生境稳定性调查和评价，收集2010-2020年间鸟类观察数据，建立包括生境类型、生境面积、生境多样性、生境破碎度、生境连通性、植被覆盖、湿度、养殖区面积、生态系统服务、林地面积、耕地面积、城镇化面积、气象等13个指标的生境评价指标体系及生境稳定性（Habitat Stability）评价方法，得到红树林自然保护区内外生境稳定性的空间差异。（3）跨边界海湾人类活动累积效应的空间特征：建立海湾的海域使用强度指数（SUIV）和海域使用冲突指数（SUCV）计算方法，选取三个具有不同特征的跨边界海湾（厦门湾、湄洲湾、兴化湾），开展其人类活动的整体累积效应及SUIV和SUCV空间特征研究。（4）以海洋空间规划方案优化为目标的海洋生态环境累积效应的应用：以厦门湾西海域为研究区，评估两个海洋功能区划方案在海域使用协调和关键生境保护两方面的表现，为海洋空间规划方案的优化提供了定量依据。本项目在半封闭海湾人类活动积累效应方面积累了国内外研究区的基础数据，建立了海域使用的SUIV和SUCV两个指数计算以及生境稳定性评估等新方法，对研究区的累积效应取得了新的具体认识，并提出了以海洋空间规划方案评估为主要抓手的调控路径，为实现人海和谐提供了科学支持。