风电产业创新政策的系统解构、绩效测度与“需求-情境-特征”视角下的三层匹配研究

The contradictions of the inefficiency of continuous policy operation and the lack of breakthrough of major technological bottlenecks are becoming the biggest two obstacles for China to develop strategic emerging industries, play catch-up effect of technology and make disruptive and cutting-edge technology turn overtaking competitors. And the problem is in need of further academic research. There is no unified conclusion on the effectiveness of industrial policy in the academic circles. More and more scholars believe that "applicability and compatibility" is the essence of the effectiveness of industrial policy. However, the existing researches are limited to a single policy variable, and the subject, object, process and key factors involved in the policy matching need to be further studied in. The way to match policies and to improve the precision and efficiency are still lack of empirical study.The subject takes the wind power industry as an example, on the basis of deconstructing its innovation policy system, building the policy system analysis framework of "Objective-Tool-Execute". And we measure the policy performance from the perspectives of efficiency and output. Then we analyze the macro and micro process mechanism of policy and identify the key factors from the source of policy. Considering the policy needs of the subject and object and the interaction relationship between the policy tools, the three-layer matching model study of "policy goals and needs", "the policy system analysis framework inner matching", and the "needs-situation-features"is gradually achieved.Finally, we look forward to providing references for the government to formulate a high precision and innovation policy.

政策持续投入的低效运行与重大技术瓶颈无法突破的双重矛盾正成为我国发展战略性新兴产业、发挥技术追赶效应、实现颠覆性、前沿性技术弯道超车的最大障碍，亟需学术研究的理论破解。学术界关于产业政策有效性争议不断，但越来越多的学者认为“适用性和匹配性”是产业政策有效性的实质；然现有研究多局限于单一政策变量，政策匹配涉及的主体、客体、作用过程以及关键影响要素尚需深入研究；关于如何匹配？如何提高政策精准性和运行效率？还缺乏实证探讨。本课题拟以风电产业为例，在解构其创新政策体系基础上，构建“目标—工具—执行”的政策体系分析框架，基于效率和产出视角测度政策绩效；从政策源头出发剖析政策的宏观、微观过程机制并识别关键影响因素；在主、客体政策需求及政策工具互动关系分析基础上，逐步实现“政策目标与需要”的匹配、政策体系内部匹配及政策体系与“需求—情境—特征”的三层匹配研究；期待为政府制定高精准性创新政策提供依据。

大量创新政策持续投入的低效运行与重大技术瓶颈无法突破的双重矛盾正成为新能源产业创新的最大障碍；产业政策有效性的实质和前提是“适用性和匹配性”，但如何匹配提升政策精准性和运行效率尚缺乏理论研究和实证探讨。为此，课题组从政策体系构成、发布和执行等内部匹配；产业链不同环节的政策需求与匹配、地方创新需求与中央政策目标的匹配；“政策需求、政策环境与创新主体特征”的三层匹配进行了系统分析和探索。主要结果如下：.（1）政策体系内部匹配与执行：风电并网支持逐渐成为政策支持重点，发改委、国务院、能源局和财政部四部联合发布成为风电产业政策内部组合的主流形式和有效匹配；政策组合存在互斥和互补效应；命令-依赖型、政策与地方需求匹配的中央地方关系更有利于政策的宏观扩散和执行。.（2）政策组合与创新环境的匹配：市场发育程度、研发环境和政府支持是区域创新环境中影响风电产业创新质量提升的必要条件，东部区位/经济基础环境良好的企业表现更显著；总体上，单一政策中规制型政策更有利于企业实质性创新，激励型政策则更有利于策略性创新；环境型+需求型的政策组合互斥而资源供给型+管控规制型的政策组合互补；这一结论在引入企业区位和所在区域创新环境后发生变化：“环境型+需求型”政策组合的互斥效应在创新环境较弱的区域会发生逆转，出现显著促进作用；而“资源供给型和管控规制型”政策组合在中西部、创新环境较弱的地区的影响不显著，互补效应消失。.（3）政策组合与企业类型的匹配：单一政策或者政策组合都不能促进产业链研发核心环节上、中游企业创新并显著抑制下游企业创新；技术创新型原材料加工型和技术稳定型风力发电企业配备全套政策组合（经济+柔性+规制）更为有利；技术创新型零部件制造企业需匹配“柔性+规制”政策组合；除重资产外，其余三种模式下的企业应匹配“激励+规制”政策组合。.以上研究成果为我国风电产业政策的顶层设计、分类制定与科学组合提供理论借鉴。