时滞周期、市场创新绩效动态测度与三级科技经费配置优化研究

Science and technology funds allocation and on the basis of market innovation performance is a key problem in the process of building an innovation-oriented country. With the large-scale promotion and accelerate the pace of the total funds of building innovation-oriented country, Maximize market innovation performance based on the allocation of funds is an important issue in front of us. Influence of time delay and cycle has been the difficult problems of the allocation efficiency of science and technology funds，is also the core problem of optimization allocation of funds for science and technology. This project attempts to introduce the the physics cross spectrum analysis output delay in some typical industry funding cycle; In considering the time delay cycle under the influence, according to the preliminary qualitative and quantitative build market innovation evaluation index system，Use the NWR-DEA method to dynamically measure the different provinces of the country level, different industries and different provinces within the Ministry of Science and Technology funding allocation efficiency and market innovation performance.,To break through the limitations of existing research does not reflect the dynamic changes of market competition. Finally，according to the measurement results by using the improved the optimization method to construction of the science and technology funds allocation three grade structure optimization model based on the time, space and The internal structure of the enterprise .Form the optimization allocation model of diffierent industries, different provinces under the industries and the provinces internal different types of scientific and technological funds.

科技经费配置及在此基础上的市场创新绩效是我国创新型国家建设过程中的核心问题。随着创新型国家建设步伐的加快及经费总量的大规模提升，基于市场创新绩效的最大化的经费配置是摆在我们面前的重要课题。本课题拟用Granger、灰关联等方法构建基于经费配置结构的市场创新绩效评价指标体系；引入交叉谱法分析我国不同产业科技经费配置结构时滞周期；在考虑时滞因素的前提下，运用NWR-DEA法系统、动态测度我国不同省域、不同产业的科技经费配置效率问题，获得国家层面中科技经费配置效率最高、最具推广价值、最需提升效率以及最需优先发展的产业和省份分别是哪些；不同省域内效率最高、最具推广价值、最需提升效率以及最需优先发展的产业分别是哪些？根据测度结果拟运用改进宋氏优化法构建基于"时间、空间和企业内部结构"的科技经费配置三级结构优化模型，并形成我国科技经费在不同产业间、产业内各省域间及各省域内部三级经费配置的结构优化方案。

随着创新型国家建设步伐的加快以及科技经费投入的迅速增加，我国的创新产出也不断提升,但投入产出效率相对较低。深入研究发现：市场创新绩效不仅受到科技经费投入总量的影响，还受到科技经费配置结构和创新环境的影响，因此如何在现有创新环境下优化科技经费配置结构、提升我国市场创新绩效是摆在我们面前的一个重要课题。本研究以此为切入点在文献梳理的基础上研究了科技经费配置结构对市场创新绩效的影响；运用交叉谱方法探索了科技经费投入对技术创新和最终产品创新的时滞影响；同时运用Group lasso探讨了科技创新环境要素在科技经费配置对市场创新绩效作用过程中的时滞影响问题。.来自我国高技术产业的实证研究表明：我国高技术产业科技经费投入对创新产出具有显著时滞影响，普遍表现出短、中、长三个阶段的周期规律，并在各个子行业中有些许差异；总体而言政府行为、研发基础、经济基础、产业结构、市场发育程度是影响技术创新绩效的关键环境要素，而产业结构、政府影响、地理区位优势、市场发育程度是影响产品创新绩效即转化绩效的关键环境要素。基于效率最大和效率提升约束下的产出最大两个视角，分别构建了提升市场创新绩效的科技经费配置结构优化的理论模型，通过编程运用R软件得到了国家科技经费投入的科学增量、政府资金与企业资金的最佳配比以及不同省际、省域内不同产业的最佳科技经费配置方案。