中国光伏产业创新政策多向非均匀性叠加作用测度及其优化研究

Photovoltaic (PV) is a new category of energy with broad prospects, which is strongly supported by the government as a national strategic emerging industry. The project will build a two-dimensional classification framework of the side dimension and the scope dimension, and China’s PV industry innovation policies will he sorted and systematically summarized， and some typical policy group will be defined; Analysis of the features of the photovoltaic industry innovation policy group, including multi-direction, non-uniformity and interaction, whereby analysis framework will be established to measure PV industry innovation policy. According to the strength and function mode of China's PV industry innovation policy, the policies will be qualified; Based on the specific characteristics of the PV industry innovation policy group, Non-uniformity of PV industry innovation policy will be analyzed using panel data analysis and case studies;PV industry innovation network MMD-GERT model will be constructed, single policy impulses and interaction impulses will be transferred to be its parameters, the interactions and macro- effect of China’s PV industry innovation policy will be measured;China's PV industry innovation policy will be internationally compared. Combined with the results of the above measurements of China’s PV innovation policy, China’s PV industry innovation policy shortcomings will be analyzed;On this basis, in accordance with the principle of targeting and focusing, PV industry innovation policy mixes will be designed, and the effects of the mixes will be tested by using MMD-GERT network as a computing tool. Scientific, effective and workable policy mixes will be made.

光伏是具有广阔前景的新能源门类，也是国家重点扶持的战略性新兴产业。本项目构建基于作用侧和作用范围的二维分类框架，对中国光伏产业创新政策进行梳理，提取若干典型政策群；分析光伏产业创新政策作用特征，包括多向性、非均匀性和叠加性，据此建立光伏产业创新政策作用的测度框架。对中国光伏产业创新政策群按照作用强度和作用方式进行量化表征，依据光伏产业创新政策群的具体特征，采用面板数据分析和案例分析对光伏产业创新政策群的非均匀性微观作用进行解析；构建光伏产业创新网络的MMD-GERT模型，将单政策作用冲量和多政策作用的叠加冲量作为其参数，对光伏产业创新政策宏观效应进行测度；对中国光伏产业创新政策进行国际比较，结合上述政策作用测度结果，追溯中国光伏产业创新政策缺陷；依据瞄准性和针对性原则，设计光伏产业创新政策组合方案，以MMD-GERT网络为工具对其进行计算验证，探寻科学、有效、可操作的政策优化方案。

本课题收集和整理了我国国家（部委）层面的光伏政策文本共计291份。依据政策之间的内在联系，采用社会网络分析划分了5个光伏政策群；采用共词分析的方法研究了各个政策群的政策热点，揭示了中国光伏政策动态演化的特征。根据政策设计理论，探讨了中国光伏政策演化的影响因素。对光伏企业和电站进行了实地调研，了解了中国光伏产业的发展现状和技术创新水平，掌握光伏政策动态演化对光伏产业的影响，以及光伏政策的减贫效果和排放效应。光伏政策给予了企业一定的补贴或者优惠，可以理解为光伏企业的金融支持之一，采用面板数据对光伏企业的金融支持影响进行研究，结果表明，光伏政策对光伏企业创新具有积极影响，而对企业的财务绩效影响却是负的。对光伏政策和光伏专利进行结合分析，结果表明了光伏政策主要促进了产业链下游的创新。构建了光伏产业的GERT网络模型，据此，采用多Agent仿真技术对光伏政策效果进行了仿真。仿真表明光伏政策的效果比较有限，不能解释光伏产能严重过剩现象。进一步分析了中国光伏政策存在的问题，提出了若干光伏政策的优化思路。