我国光伏产业政策评估研究

As an important part of the emerging industry, solar photovoltaic industry has weak competitiveness in its primary stage of   and needs the strong support of the policies. Since “The new energy and renewable energy development program (1996-2010)” was released in 1995, the Chinese Government promulgated a series of supportive policies and the photovoltaic industry in China has made great achievements also with many problems. Most of these problems are related to the policies: short-sighted policy subject, incomplete policy system, changing policy environment. How do we formulate and implement reasonably, effectively the policies so as to avoid photovoltaic industry in China to take a tortuous course?..In light of the above, The project’s guiding ideology is the scientific development concept, combined with system theory and policy evaluation econometrics, game theory and other theories and methods. We use the research paradigm, such as field survey, qualitative analysis, theoretical modeling, computer simulation, etc., to establish the evaluation model, give the evaluation method, assess the effectiveness of the policies, diagnose the causes for the poor effect, meanwhile put forward the proposals on enhancing the effectiveness of policies, and provide the scientific theoretical base for the future industrial policies...Therefore, the project research results will have a very important reference value for the healthy development of photovoltaic industry in China.

太阳能光伏产业作为新兴产业的重要组成部分，因为在起步阶段竞争力较弱，需要政策的大力支持。自从1995年发布了《新能源和可再生能源发展纲要（1996-2010）》，国家相继出台了一系列扶持政策，使得我国光伏产业取得巨大成绩又存在许多问题，这些问题也大多都与政策有关：政策主体的短视、政策体系的欠缺、政策环境的变化。如何合理地、有效制订和执行政策，让我国光伏产业发展少走弯路？..鉴于上述，本项目以科学发展观为指导思想，结合系统理论、政策评估计量经济学、博弈论等多学科理论与方法，以实地调查、定性分析、理论建模、计算机仿真等研究范式展开工作，建立我国光伏产业政策的评估模型，给出评估方法，评估现有政策的有效性，诊断政策效应弱化或偏差的成因，同时提出增强政策有效性的对策与建议，为制订未来的产业政策提供科学的理论依据。..因此，本项目的研究成果将对我国光伏产业的健康发展具有十分重要的参考价值。

在能源转型和碳排放目标下，可再生能源产业得到了越来也广泛的关注。在这些可再生能源中，光伏产业由于其安全可靠、资源丰富等特点变成了当前发展速度最好的可再生能源之一。在这短短十几年的发展历程中，为支持中国光伏产业更快更好地发展，相关政府部门出台了一系列政府政策。然而，这些政策的效果如何是我们需要考虑的关键问题。在本课题中，我们首先从系统和动态的角度分析了我国光伏产业的发展趋势，研究在相关政策的驱动下我国光伏产业的发展现状以及未来发展趋势；进而整理我国光伏产业已有的相关政策，总结这些政策所具有的特征；然后从产品质量、经济、环境、社会等方面确定政策评估的内容，并分别从这四个方面建立相应的评估模型，使用具体的数据分别从这四个方面对光伏产业政策进行评估，分析这些政策的实施效果，给相关政府部门与企业一定的指导。