考虑出行者行为惯性的“机场群”空向运输网络优化研究

With the rapid increase of China's airport volume, the localized strategy has caused the ill-balanced hub and spoke airports. Therefore, the airport alliance with an optimized airline network should be applied to construct the airports' collaboration in multi-airport regions. The construction of airline network involves several consecutive updates of air routes and flight time, and the purpose of each update is to induce passengers to switch among airports, thus driving the air travel demand to match the services provided by every airport in the region. Because the demand switch is influenced by airports' ground access and passengers' behavioral inertia, this project establishes a two-dimensional topology structure called time-space transportation network, in which the connectivity between airline network and ground access network can be described, so as to express the demand switch in mathematics. Then, on the basis of bounded rationality theory and prospect theory, the simulation system of air-travel demand is developed to reveal the demand switch mechanism. In view of the fractionated constructing process of airline network, the interaction between the consecutive updates is built integrating the feedback of demand to the update decision, and the dynamic optimization method of the airline network is established on the Pareto optimal method and multi-objective programming. Finally, the airline-flight update chain will be calculated. This project provides a new way to predict the air travel demand in the context of bounded rationality, and also will guide the construction of the collaborative mechanism within the airport alliance.

为解决机场数量急剧增长和属地化管理所引发的我国干支线机场发展不平衡问题，引进机场群模式并优化其空向运输网络，构建区域机场协同运营体系。机场群空向运输网络的构建涉及多批次航线-航班更新，各次更新的目的在于引导航空出行需求在机场间转移，形成可支撑机场群运营效益的需求分布。考虑到需求转移受地面接驳运输和行为惯性的影响，本项目基于交通拓扑理论设计时-空运输网络，刻画机场群空向、陆向运输网络的衔接关系，实现需求转移过程的数学表达；融合有限理性理论和前景理论提出航空出行需求模拟方法，揭示需求转移的内驱机理。最后，针对空向运输网络构建过程的连续更新特征，基于需求转移规律建立各次更新间的互动影响，利用Pareto线性规划方法构建空向运输网络动态优化模型，并通过设计多目标遗传算法获得机场群航线-航班更新链。本研究为有限理性状态下航空出行需求预测提供新方法，对构建我国机场群中各机场间合作机制具有指导意义。

本项目将“机场群”看作一个可衔接本土航线与国际航线的机场联盟，构建一条“空-地-空”新型国际运输通道。围绕这一新型通道进行了三方面研究，包括：基于潜在类别模型构建乘客出行路径选择模型，预测乘客对这一新型运输通道的选择偏好；基于时空运输网络构建“机场群”空向运输网络动态优化模型，提供“机场群”中喂给机场与门户机场在合作不同阶段可实施的航线网络优化策略；以“港-珠-澳”大湾区所覆盖“机场群”为实例验证提出的行为模型和运输网络动态优化模型。研究结果表明“机场群”可成为本土航线与国际航线间的跨机场中转枢纽，以此提供高效的国际运输服务，“空-地-空”国际运输通道所服务的目标客源群体不稳定，只有提升空-地协同服务水平才能使这一服务被市场接受；“机场群”中喂给机场的空向运输网络必须与地面服务以及门户机场的国际运输航线相匹配才可使“空-地-空”服务具有吸引力。本项目为门户机场提供了时刻资源紧缺背景下开辟本土航线的新思路、也为中小型机场提供了市场客源有限条件下开辟国际通道的新措施。