跨越中等收入陷阱：以沿海地区产业率先转型升级为突破口

China has reached the higher-middle income status since 2010, and its industries and technologies have been quite competitive internationally. However, China has to meet the challenge of how to escape the mid-income trap by upgrading and transforming the industries. In particular, as the flagship of China's industry development and technology progress, the rich areas are even more compelled to, perhaps also better prepared to, further their industrial upgrading. In this project, we aim to systematically explore and summarize the successful and failed cases of industrial upgrading and structural transformation world wide, and attempt to explain these phenomena within the analytic framework of New Structural Economics. Based on the key hypothesis that "upgrading of endowment structure determines the evolution of comparative advantage and drives the upgrading and transformation of industries" and the six-step policy recommendations of "Growth Identification and Facilitation", we select Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces as three representative regions, textile/apparel/footwear, telecommunications, automobile, and solar photovoltaics as four representative industries, to document the histories and patterns of their industrial upgrading and transformation, to identify the bottlenecks for further upgrading and transformation, to establish dynamic general equilibrium models to conduct calibration and simulation analyses and make quantitative predictions. Region-specific and industry-specific policy suggestions will be provided on how to improve industrial policies and facilitate industrial upgrading and transformation.

我国已于 2010 年跨入上中等收入国家行列，产业和技术水平在国际上具有相当的竞争力。面对跨越中等收入陷阱的挑战，我国产业必需进一步转型升级。经济发达地区产业和技术水平处于相对领先的地位，既有必要率先转型升级，也具备转型升级所需要的条件和可能。本项目将以新结构经济学的逻辑框架，系统地总结二战以来全球范围内产业转型升级正反两方面的经验和教训，并对这些经验教训给出逻辑一致的解释。在此基础上，基于"要素禀赋结构随发展阶段提升推动比较优势变化和产业转型升级"的假说，和政府"因势利导与增长甄别"的"六步骤"方案，从区域层面选择我国粤、浙、苏三省，从产业层面选择纺织服装鞋帽、电子通讯、汽车、光伏等四类代表性产业，总结产业转型升级的模式和历史经验，识别制约进一步转型升级的障碍，建立动态一般均衡模型并进行模拟分析和预测，并结合这些地区和产业的特点提出有针对性的改进产业政策和促进转型升级的政策建议。

我国已于 2010 年跨入上中等收入国家行列，产业和技术水平在国际上具有相当的竞争力。面对跨越中等收入陷阱的挑战，我国产业必需进一步转型升级。经济发达地区产业和技术水平处于相对领先的地位，既有必要率先转型升级，也具备转型升级所需要的条件和可能。本项目以新结构经济学的逻辑框架，系统地总结二战以来全球范围内产业转型升级正反两方面的经验和教训，并对这些经验教训给出逻辑一致的解释。在此基础上,基于"要素禀赋结构随发展阶段提升推动比较优势变化和产业转型升级"的假说，和政府包括"因势利导与增长甄别"（双轨六步法）在内的五类产业因势利导方案，从区域层面、产业层面、国际层面总结了产业转型升级的模式和历史经验，识别制约进一步转型升级的障碍，建立动态一般均衡模型并进行模拟分析和预测，并结合地区和产业的特点提出了有针对性的改进产业政策和促进转型升级的政策建议。课题在产业转型升级的理论基础和理论框架、产业转型升级理论命题的实证检验以及产业升级的政策研究等方面取得了可喜的学术进展和重要成果并积累了一批重要数据资料，对于推进新结构经济学以及相关学科发展具有重要的科学意义，在推进我国产业转型升级跨越中等收入陷阱上具有重要的应用前景，与此同时对于总结中国经验并具有向发展中经济体提供借鉴的宝贵价值。