环境规制对高耗能产业绿色转型影响机理研究：以钢铁产业为例

Due to its significant impacts on economy, energy and environment, the transformation and upgrading of energy-intensive industries plays critical positive roles in addressing domestic resource-environmental constraints, battling climate change and facilitating the green and inclusive development of China’s economy under the “new-normal”. Considering the profound impacts of environmental policy and institutional arrangements on the directions and paths of industrial transformation, this project proposes specific and targeted suggestions by analyzing the influence mechanism of environmental regulation on energy-intensive industries’ green transformation from the perspective of institutional theory. First, an adjusted green growth evolution framework and its model are constructed by taking energy and environmental constraints into account based on the fuzzy theory. The updated industrial green growth level is estimated accordingly; second, a coupling coordination analytical framework and its systematic model are constructed based on the transformation theory. Green transformation degree of energy-intensive industries is then observed; third, a non-structural model is constructed to observe the heterogeneous, interactive, indirect and spatial effects of environmental regulation on industrial green transformation; last but not least, empirical and theoretical analyses of the iron and steel industry are conducted to reveal generalized policy implications for environmental instrument design and institutional arrangements of energy-intensive industries.

因其显著的经济属性、能源消耗和环境影响，高耗能产业的转型升级对于破除资源环境约束、应对气候变化挑战、促进新常态下中国经济的绿色包容增长具有不可忽视的积极作用。考虑到环境政策与制度安排对产业转型方向和路径的关键引导作用，本项目从制度理论出发，分析异质性环境规制对高耗能产业绿色转型的影响机理，进而提出有针对性的对策建议。研究首先基于模糊理论，构建能源与环境约束下的产业绿色增长的分析框架与修正模型，实现对高耗能产业绿色增长水平的测度；其次是基于转型理论，构建产业增长与区域发展的耦合协同分析框架和系统模型，实现对高耗能产业绿色转型程度的识别；再次，从动态响应视角出发，构建考虑异质效应、互动效应、间接效应和空间效应的非结构动态模型，分析环境规制对高耗能产业绿色转型的影响机理；最后，以钢铁产业为例进行实证检验和理论分析，提出对高耗能产业具有普遍推广意义的环境政策工具设计与制度安排的对策建议。

因其显著的经济、资源、环境与战略影响，以钢铁为代表的高耗能产业的绿色增长与转型对于破除国内资源约束、应对气候变化挑战、促进新常态下中国经济的包容绿色增长具有不可忽视的积极作用。尽管目前对绿色转型的概念内涵、评价体系和转型动力尚未形成统一的认知，但环境政策对转型方向选择和转型路径设计的重要影响已经得到了广泛的认可。因此，本项目从制度理论出发，开展理论分析、模型构建和基于钢铁产业的实证检验，旨在明确高耗能产业的绿色转型程度与特征，识别环境制度约束对绿色转型的影响机理。.本项目首先从全要素分析的视角出发，构建考虑资源约束、环境影响、经济收益的高耗能产业绿色增长分析框架，并提出基于共同前沿理论与全局混合技术的效率测算改进模型；其次，从“增长、环保、脱钩、低碳”的视角出发，基于脱钩理论、灰色理论、指数分解等技术，构建高耗能产业绿色转型的测算框架与模型；进一步，从空间效应、互动响应、短期长期、非线性影响的视角出发，基于门槛理论、空间经济理论、脉冲响应及动态面板等技术，分析异质性环境规制（如正式、非正式；行政命令型、市场激励型、公众参与型）对绿色增长与转型的动态、空间、非线性影响以及作用路径；在此基础上，依托项目统计数据与资料进行实证检验并积极开展案例研究。.通过本项目的开展与推进，一是实现了对增长理论、转型理论、制度理论及相关假说（如波特假说、杰文斯悖论、环境库兹涅茨曲线假说等）的探讨与丰富；二是实现了对以钢铁为代表的高耗能产业绿色增长与转型测度所需指标的筛选及统计数据的全面收集整理，构建起具有项目特色的数据资料库；三是依托项目的支持，完成了预期人才培养、学术交流合作、学术成果发表与应用等目标。