机会集补偿视角下机会平等化收敛机理及实现路径

Equalization of Opportunity can enable the choice to be balanced between the equality and the efficiency. This makes up for the gap of the disadvantages relative to the advantages, and drives the convergence of opportunity distribution endogenously, so that the spontaneous convergence lagging should be overcomed. A key to reconstruct the pattern of opportunity distribution is to know how it converges endogenously. The project is proposed on the base of compensation of opportunity sets, by the carrier of opportunity being embedded. The obiective of this proposal will be focused on revealing the dynamic evolution mechanism for equalization of opportunity under the opportunity distribution in China. The aims are to: (1) analyze the overall framework of ranking opportunity distribution based on compensation of opportunity sets, and determine the mechanism that the opportunity targets response to the opportunity distribution’s ranking by opportunity carrier selecting and opportunity targets recognizing; (2) build the model transferring from the opportunity targets set to opportunity distribution ranking set, and to set of the convergence of opportunity distribution,and then analyze the degree that one of constitutes fits to another by the Normal Cloud Model, in order to reveal the path with which the relation between constitutes is explicit;(3) verify the trace of inequality of opportunity by use of empirical analysis, in order to determine the intermediary objective, based on it, and put forward the strategy matrix of “opportunity target + ranking operator”. The research proposal will improve the utility of the theory of equality of opportunity so as to analyze how to reconstruct opportunity distribution,and the research results can improve the performance of fiscal policies.

机会平等化排序可以平衡机会分配的公平与效率选择，弥补劣势者的机会缺口，驱动机会平等化收敛，进而改善自发收敛滞后性。重构社会机会格局关键是明确机会平等化收敛的动态演化规律。本课题以机会集补偿为切入点，通过把机会载体嵌入机会排序过程，揭示在中国社会机会格局下机会平等化收敛的动态演化机理：（1）解析依托物化载体的机会集补偿排序整体框架。通过机会载体选择和机会靶点辨识，分析机会靶点对机会排序触发机制，基于机会集补偿设计机会排序算子及算法；（2）构建从机会靶点集到机会排序集再到机会收敛集的耦合模型，并运用正态云模型分析关联要素之间耦合强度，揭示耦合关系显著的传导路径；（3）实证分析机会不平等性发展轨迹，用以确定机会收敛过程驱动的中间目标，据此生成“机会靶点+机会排序算子”策略矩阵。本研究将增强机会平等理论对社会机会分配格局重构的解释力，研究成果在财政政策设计中应用可提升财政政策工具效能。

为了夯实机会排序平衡社会分配“公平”与“效率”的基础，建立了依托中国社会机会差序格局的责任与福利对等的机会不平等责任归咎准则，并以可控的机会排序工具撬动固有机会格局，解决机会分布自发收敛的滞后性问题。研究期间的主要发现：（1）将城镇化嵌入环境因素集，揭示了三维城镇化对社会贫富分化迥然不同的分配效应。在全面深化城镇化进程中，厘清不同维度城镇化对社会分配格局的扰动效应，为城镇化诱导社会利益格局重构的分配效能的合理释放提供科学指引；（2）构建了非参数形式机会不平等指数，采用组间模式测度机会格局失衡特征，挖掘出引致机会分布失衡突显的关键环境因素，并从中锚定劣势类型群体，为机会平等化政策工具的相机机会补偿提供作用靶向。（3）依托机会差序格局现实，锚定了农村居民和农民市民化群体等社会典型群体，解析其机会分布格局并挖掘出重要驱动因素，揭示出从机会靶点到机会排序再到机会分布敛散的耦合路径。收入结构制约着农村居民收入获取机会公平实现程度，收入获取机会公平性随着财产性收入对实际获得结果贡献度的增加而提升。农村居民对非农经济参与度也决定了其收入获取机会。居住区位和市民化途径对农民市民化群体收入获取机会格局的分割效应较为突显。（4）延伸了机会不平等对社会重要后果变量扰动效应的探究。机会不平等对民众学习意愿存在显著的扰动作用。以责任因素主导的机会不平等可以提振民众学习意愿，但环境因素所致的机会不公将消解居民学习意愿。机会不平等通过介入个体的社会公平认知以及对自我获得的公平认知而诱导其获得感。. 本项目研究结果不仅丰富了来自中国社会差序格局的机会公平性及其收敛路径的证据，也拓展了财政政策工具在机会平等化收敛层面的政策意涵，为回应公平与效率两难选择的社会关切提供了理论支持。在研期间，发表CSSCI论文7篇，出版专著一部，项目负责人还在本项目研究基础上，申请到2017年国家自然科学基金面上项目。