社会网络、合作社运动与土地流转家庭生计支持研究

Social Networks and Cooperatiave Organizations for peasants are effective in improving peasant livlihood and village public service, as well as in providing substaniable social support in rural China. The risk of livlihood uncertainy for land-transferred household increases along with the development of agricultural land marketization and agricltural modernization.It has great significance for establishing, estimating, evaluating and emulating various factors and systems that affect the livelihood of land-transferred households. .This resaerch, on basis of the perspectives of network dynamics, emphasizes the livlihood support of land-transferred households, conceptualizes the distinctions between livelihood and livelihood support, establishes the index system that critically affects livelihood and classifies the stratification of land-transferred households..At the same time, by employing cmmunity-based and cluster ways into the analysis, this research focuses on establishing the network dynamic models of livelihood for land-transferred households, on analyzing and predicting the tendency of change of livelihood for land-transferred households. In addition, by introducing mulitlevel regression models, this research attempts to evaluate stratification for livelihood effects, to analyze the contribution rates and effect index of various livelihood components. .By employing the technologies of function construction and structural equation, this research, on basis of the analyses above, attempts to establish the models of policy evaluations for livelihood support. By experimenting pilot units and model emulations, this research aims to find out the models and its decision-making strategies for the policies of livelihood support of land-transferred households, providing scientific policy suggestions for public services and social support in rural China.

社会网络、农民合作社具有提升农民生计质量，促进农村公共服务与社会保障可持续发展的功能。随着农村土地市场化和农业现代化的推进，土地流转家庭面临的不确定生计风险因素相应增大。土地流转家庭生计影响因素与支持体系的建模、预测、评定与仿真具有重要意义。本项目拟从网络动力学角度，研究土地流转家庭生计支持，科学界定生计与生计支持内涵，确定影响生计的关键因素指标集并对土地流转家庭分类分层；运用社群图和区块分析法，建立土地流转家庭生计网络动力学模型，分析和预测土地流转家庭生计变化规律与趋势；运用分层线性回归技术，建立生计效应评定分层模型，分析不同生计构成要素的贡献率和效应函数。在上述基础上，运用函数构建与计算、结构方程技术，建立生计支持政策评估模型；通过试点单位试验与模型仿真，研究并确定土地流转家庭生计支持政策的目标目标体系及其行动策略，为我国农村公共服务和社会保障提供科学的决策依据。

由于农村土地市场化建设滞后，农村基本公共服务有效供给不足，土地流转家庭尤其是困难家庭生计问题突出，面临的不确定生计风险因素相应增大如何科学评价农村公共服务对农民生计支持的效应，进而为土地流转家庭生计提供确实有效的生计支持并使之具有可持续生计能力，是本项目研究的核心问题。.本项目首先从制度主义分析视角，研究中国农村土地流转逻辑，描述和总结补偿性生计支持政策与发展性生计支持政策的运行规律特征，重点分析最低生活保障、新型农村合作医疗、农民专业合作社以及资产收益扶贫的效果和影响机制。在此基础上，基于可持续生计理论与分析框架，测量和评估了生计资本对土地流转家庭生计的影响，家庭的物质网、信息网、陪伴网和情感网具有重要社会支持功能，而物质网和信息网具有生计支持功能。从网络动力学视角，应用社群图、整体网以及因子分析等技术，建立基于网络动力学的土地流转家庭生计政策、福利均等化效应模型，揭示了居住制度、生计资本、农民专业合作社等对于农地流转贫困家生计的重要意义；生计资本和空间参与可以显著改善残疾人社会福利的均等化水平，基于户籍制度的居住空间分别维系着城市内部和农村内部残疾人福利的相对均等，城乡福利差异被持续固化；农民专业合作社成为残疾人家庭解决生计困难的重要组织化途径，但合作社组织运作与治理结构外形化给组织绩效带来了负面影响。最后，本项目研究提出农村反贫困政策应从生计救助向生计保护、生计发展转变，加快贫困家庭生计支持立法、健全生计支持体系、落实精准扶贫方略等政策建议与措施。.本项目的研究，拓展了网络动力学的研究领域，丰富了农村反贫困政策的理论研究，有助于促进农村公共品与服务有效供给，促进反贫困政策的目标瞄准机制建设，增进精准扶贫实施成效。