供应和需求混合中断下供应链协调的理论与应用研究

As a new research topic, the study on coordination theory of supply chain under hybrid disruption of both supply and demand is proposed under the dual drive of theoretical innovation and realistic needs in SCRM. Applying the theory and approach of stochastic optimization, copulas, statistic simulation and computer simulation, we will depict the statistical law and the dependence of supply, demand and recover of disruption, reveal the combined effect of them on the chain, and respectively develop price model and inventory model under hybrid disruption of both supply and demand based on the idea of system science by analysing the cause of both supply and demand disruption. Though the model, sensibility and tobustness of supply chain relevant parameters will be examined, influence of the main parameters on performance of supply chain coordination will be evaluated, coordination theory of supply chain under hybrid disruption of both supply and demand will be established, research field of SCRM will be developed further. Problems existed in supply chain management and risk faced by enterprises of Lanzhou New Area will be analysed and diagnosed, scheme of supply chain coordination will be optimized systematically, and necessary theoretical support and decision will be provided for supply chain management of enterprises applying supply chain coordination theory under hybrid disruption of both supply and demand.

供应和需求混合中断下供应链协调理论的研究是在供应链风险管理理论创新和现实需求双重驱动下提出的一个全新的研究课题。我们将基于系统科学的思想，运用随机优化、Copulas、统计模拟及计算机仿真的理论和方法,通过供应中断和需求中断的成因分析，刻画供应中断、需求中断与中断修复的统计规律及其相依性，揭示供应中断、需求中断与中断修复对供应链的联合影响，分类建立供应和需求混合中断下供应链的定价模型和库存模型。通过模型对供应链相关参数的敏感性与鲁棒性检验，评估主要参数对供应链的协调绩效，构建供应和需求混合中断下供应链的协调理论，进一步开拓SCRM的研究领域。应用供应和需求混合中断下供应链的协调理论分析和诊断兰州新区企业在供应链管理中存在的问题及面临的风险，系统优化供应链协调方案，为企业进行供应链管理提供必要的理论支撑和决策支持。

我们通过对供应中断和需求中断的成因分析，有效地刻画了供应中断、需求中断与中断修复三个过程的相依性等统计规律，揭示了供应中断、需求中断与中断修复对供应链的联合影响，分类建立了供应和需求混合中断下供应链的最优定价模型和最优库存模型，初步建立了供应和需求混合中断下供应链的协调理论，进一步开拓SCRM的研究领域。应用供应和需求混合中断下供应链的协调理论分析和诊断了包括兰州新区企业在内的甘肃地区供应链企业管理中存在的问题及面临的风险，优化了供应链协调方案，为供应链管理提供了必要的理论支撑和决策依据。本项目按照研究计划和研究内容较好地完成了研究任务，达到了预期目标。