基于链式传递情景模拟的区域旱灾风险智能识别评估与调控

Recognition, assessment, regulation and control of regional drought disaster risk system are important scientific research frontier problems in drought disaster risk management and the key for drought risk prevention and control. On the basis of risk chain transfer mechanisms, the concept system of regional drought disaster risk will be established to effectively describe, physically analyze and regulate and control the regional drought disaster risk system and its uncertainty, which would be conducted via natural disaster risk management science, water conservancy science, systems science and intelligent science interdisciplinary research, and comprehensive integrated quantitative and qualitative approach, in the light of physical causes parsing of drought risk. This project aims at proposing the intelligent recognition methods system of regional drought risk upon risk chain transfer by means of comprehensive integration of drought test simulation, scenario simulation and intelligent computing methods, and the intelligent dynamic assessment, regulation and control methods system of regional drought risk through risk chain transfer and multi-agent physical causes simulation scenarios. Through the typical regional drought risk positive research of the Huaihe river basin in the east monsoon region of China, the theoretical basis, methodology, methods systems and the application modes of intelligent causes identification, assessment and simulation regulation of regional drought disaster risk system will be established. Therefore, the status of different levels and their causes of regional drought disaster risk system can be analyzed, the control schemes and adaptive management countermeasure of regional drought disaster risk system can be designed and optimized, which can offer solid scientific foundation and an essential decision basis for regional drought disaster risk management. The research outcome above have important applications in natural disaster risk management in future.

旱灾风险识别、评估与调控是旱灾风险管理的重要科学前沿，也是旱灾风险防控的关键科技问题。为有效描述、物理解析和调控管理区域旱灾风险系统及其不确定性，采用自然灾害风险管理科学与水利科学、系统科学和智能科学等多学科交叉、综合集成途径，在旱灾风险物理成因解析基础上，构建基于风险链式传递的区域旱灾风险概念体系，采用干旱模拟试验与情景模拟、智能计算相结合的方法，提出基于风险链式传递的旱灾风险智能识别方法体系、基于风险链式传递和物理成因多智能体情景模拟的旱灾损失风险动态评估和调控方法体系，通过在东部季风区典型区域淮河流域旱灾风险的实证研究，建立区域旱灾风险智能成因识别、动态评估与模拟调控的理论基础、方法论、方法体系和应用模式，进而物理解析区域旱灾风险系统的不同状态及其原因，设计和优选相应的旱灾风险调控方案，为旱灾风险管理提供坚实的科学基础和重要的决策依据，在自然灾害风险管理中具有重要的应用前景。

围绕旱灾风险识别、评估、调控等旱灾风险防控中的关键科技问题，为有效描述、物理解析和调控管理区域旱灾风险系统及其不确定性，采用了自然灾害风险管理科学与水利科学、系统科学和智能科学等多学科交叉、综合集成的研究途径，在旱灾风险形成过程的物理成因解析基础上，构建了基于风险链式传递的区域旱灾风险概念体系。采用干旱模拟试验与数值模拟、智能计算相结合的方法，提出了基于风险链式传递的区域干旱危险性智能分析、区域旱灾脆弱性智能分析评价、旱灾风险智能评估、区域旱灾风险系统智能模拟调控等一系列方法和技术。通过在东部季风区典型区域淮河流域旱灾风险的实证研究，建立了基于风险链式传递的区域旱灾风险智能成因识别、动态评估与模拟调控的理论基础、方法论、方法体系和应用模式，可进行物理解析区域旱灾风险系统的不同状态及其原因，进而设计和优选相应的旱灾风险调控方案，为区域旱灾风险管理提供坚实的科学基础和重要的决策依据，在其他自然灾害风险管理中也具有重要的应用前景。. 取得的重要结果有：建立了基于风险链式传递的农业旱灾风险定量评估方法，为旱灾风险防控奠定了基础；提出了基于灾害系统作用机理的干旱分析技术初步体系，结合旱灾风险系统链式传递结构，可识别旱灾风险防控分析最重要的3条链路；提出了基于试验与模拟的农业旱灾风险定量评估方法，为旱灾风险调控奠定了基础；提出了监测、调控旱灾风险的3项专利技术，为监测、调控旱灾风险提供了先进技术。. 已发表期刊论文51篇，其中SCI检索17篇、EI检索9篇、其他核心期刊论文17篇；出版著作4部；获批授权专利3项；培养骨干教师4人，培养硕士生7名；获水利部大禹水利科学技术奖（省部级）二等奖1项。