区域干旱灾害系统脆弱性智能识别评价与调控研究

The vulnerability of regional drought disaster system is composed of the regional system sensitivity caused by environmental change, the adaptability of regional system to drought disaster, and the interaction between the sensitivity and adaptability. The vulnerability problem of regional drought disaster system is an important scientific research frontier and the main regulated and controled object in drought disaster management. In order to physically analyze and scientifically control with the vulnerability process of regional drought disaster system and its uncertainty, by using management science, water conservancy science and intelligent science interdisciplinary research, and comprehensive integrated quantitative and qualitative approach, the vulnerability concept of regional drought disaster system will be established based on interaction mechanism of Pressure-State-Response of regional drought disaster system, and the vulnerability concept can be described by set pair analysis theory. The methodology, theoretical basis, models system and their application modes for intelligent recognition, evaluation, regulation and control of vulnerability of regional drought disaster system will be proposed by means of comprehensive integration of intelligent computation, set pair analysis theory and computational statistics. Using the above research results, the status of different levels and their causes of vulnerability of regional drought disaster system can be can analyzed, the vulnerability control schemes and adaptive management countermeasure of regional drought disaster system can be designed and optimized, which can offer solid scientific foundation and an important decision basis for disaster reduction of regional drought disaster, sustainable development of regional system and drought disaster risk management. All the results above have important applications in vulnerability management of disasters, environment, resources, security and energy systems in future.

由区域系统对环境变化引起干旱灾害（简称旱灾）的敏感性、区域系统对引起旱灾的环境变化的适应性、以及敏感性与适应性的相互作用组成的区域旱灾系统脆弱性，是旱灾风险管理中的重要科学前沿，也是旱灾管理中的主要调控对象。为物理解析和科学调控区域旱灾系统脆弱性过程及其不确定性，采用管理科学与水利科学、智能科学等多学科交叉、综合集成途径，根据区域旱灾系统压力、状态和响应相互作用机制构造系统脆弱性概念并用集对分析理论予以量化描述；建立基于智能计算、集对分析、计算统计学综合集成的区域旱灾系统脆弱性智能识别、评价与调控的方法论、理论基础、模型体系及其应用模式；进而分析脆弱性不同等级状态及其成因，设计和优选相应的区域旱灾系统脆弱性调控方案和适应性管理对策，为减轻区域旱灾影响、实施区域可持续发展和旱灾风险管理提供坚实的科学基础和重要的决策依据，在灾害、环境、资源、安全、能源等系统脆弱性管理中具有重要的应用前景。

围绕由区域旱灾系统的敏感性、适应性、敏感性与适应性相作用组成的旱灾系统脆弱性问题，为解析和调控旱灾脆弱性过程及其不确定性，采用了管理科学与水利科学、智能科学等学科交叉途径，根据区域旱灾系统压力、状态和响应相互作用机制构造了系统脆弱性概念并用集对分析与随机分析理论、模糊集理论相结合的途径予以量化描述；建立了基于智能计算、集对分析、计算统计学综合集成的区域旱灾系统脆弱性智能识别、评价与调控的方法论、理论基础，提出了旱灾系统脆弱性概念和旱灾风险评估的理论框架，在该框架内提出了区域旱灾系统脆弱性识别、脆弱性评价、基于脆弱性的旱灾损失风险评估与脆弱性调控方法模型集及其应用模式；经大量实证研究，分析评价了研究区域脆弱性不同等级状态及其成因，提出了相应的区域旱灾系统脆弱性调控方案和适应性管理对策，为减轻区域旱灾影响、实施区域可持续发展和旱灾风险管理提供了坚实的科学基础和重要的决策依据，在灾害、环境、资源、安全、能源等系统脆弱性管理中具有重要的应用前景。.取得的主要成果有：提出了以旱灾脆弱性为核心的旱灾风险定量评估理论框架，这套框架在淮河流域、黄河流域、海河流域、松辽流域、长江流域等得到了应用，绘制了相应的旱灾风险图，为抗旱规划实施提供了技术支持；提出了干旱频率计算的一套关键技术，为干旱频率计算办法编制和旱灾风险定量评估奠定了基础；提出了区域抗旱能力定量评价的一套关键技术关键技术，为制定抗旱标准提供了定量依据；提出了实际抗旱能力下的农业旱灾损失风险曲线计算的一套关键技术，为基于脆弱性的旱灾风险调控奠定了基础；提出了监测、调控旱灾脆弱性的5项发明专利技术，为监测、调控区域旱灾脆弱性提供了先进技术。.已发表期刊论文39篇，其中SCI检索5篇、EI检索8篇；出版著作2部；获批授权发明专利5项；培养骨干教师4人，培养硕士生8名；承办全国学术会议1次；获水利部大禹水利科学技术奖（省部级）一等奖1项。