基于试验与模拟的区域旱灾系统脆弱性识别与定量评估研究

Drought vulnerability is the important scientific frontier of drought risk research and the main object of drought risk management. Drought vulnerability and its uncertainty as the research object in this research project, research approach combining experimental and simulation to be adopted. According to long sequences water cycling experimental data of Wu Dao Gou hydrological experiment station, choice of relevant parameters of transformed between atmospheric water, surface water, ground water and soil water in study area, and drought simulation model to be established based on water cycling. Typical drought scenarios to be set that can reflect the intensity of drought disaster-causing factors. Study on quantitative assessment of drought sensitivity and adaptability based on scenario simulation method. And then quantitative relationship between intensity of drought disaster-causing factors and water shortage of hazard-affected bodies will be established. Quantitative relationship between water shortage of hazard-affected bodies and drought loss will be built by means of typical crop drought test and historical drought loss investigation. On this basis, quantitative relationship between intensity of drought disaster-causing factors and drought loss will be established by synthetic operation of the two quantitative relationship curves. And then the quantitative assessment of drought vulnerability will be implemented in study area. According the results of drought vulnerability assessment to provide important decision-making basis that design and optimization the control program of drought vulnerability, mitigating the effects of drought, implementation of drought risk management. To promote the development vulnerability management disciplines about disaster, resources, environment, and so on.

区域旱灾系统脆弱性是旱灾风险研究的重要科学前沿，也是旱灾风险调控管理的主要对象。以旱灾系统脆弱性过程及其不确定性为研究对象，采用试验与模拟相结合的研究途径，依据水文实验站长序列四水转化实验数据，率定大气水-地表水-土壤水-地下水之间转化的相关参数，构建基于四水转化的旱情模拟模型，设置反映旱灾致灾因子强度的典型旱灾情景，定量评估基于情景模拟的旱灾系统敏感性与适应性，建立旱灾致灾因子强度与承灾体缺水量之间的定量关系曲线；根据典型作物受旱试验和实地受旱损失调研，分析确定旱灾承灾体缺水量与旱灾损失之间的关系曲线；通过上述两曲线的合成，推求致灾因子强度和旱灾损失之间的定量关系曲线（即脆弱性曲线），实现对研究区旱灾系统脆弱性的定量评估。根据脆弱性评估结果及其原因，可为设计和优选相应的脆弱性调控方案、减轻区域旱灾影响、实施旱灾风险管理提供重要的决策依据，促进灾害、环境、资源等系统脆弱性管理学科的发展。

围绕由区域旱灾系统的敏感性、适应性、敏感性与适应性相作用组成的旱灾系统脆弱性问题，采用水利科学与智能科学相交叉、试验与模拟相结合的途径，通过典型农作物受旱胁迫专项试验，揭示作物不同生育期不同受旱胁迫下的系统敏感性，提出受旱胁迫程度表达式，探寻作物受旱胁迫下的蒸发蒸腾规律，优化率定不同作物不同受胁迫程度下的作物系数kc取值参数；基于作物生长解析法，推求作物受旱胁迫程度与产量之间的定量关系；建立了基于云模型、DEA投入产出分析理论、智能计算、计算统计学综合集成的区域旱灾系统敏感性和脆弱性识别与定量评估技术体系及其应用模式；经大量实证研究，分析评价了研究区旱灾系统脆弱性不同等级状态及其成因，为减轻区域旱灾影响、实施区域可持续发展和旱灾风险管理提供了理论基础与决策依据，具有重要的推广应用前景。. 取得的主要成果有：提出了作物系数kc取值关键技术一套, 为安徽省农田灌溉水有效利用系数测算提供技术支持；提出基于土壤含水率的作物受旱胁迫度，为作物受旱胁迫下的脆弱性评估奠定基础；提出基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法一套，为干旱频率计算办法制定提供和旱灾风险定量评估奠定基础；提出作物旱灾系统敏感性定量评估方法和区域旱灾系统脆弱性定量评估方法各一套，为区域旱灾风险管理、抗旱规划实施方案及应急水源规划等提供理论依据与技术支撑。. 已发表期刊论文18篇，录用待刊论文6篇，其中EI检索论文4篇；出版专著1部；培养研究生4名；获安徽省科学技术奖三等奖1项。