最小最大后悔准则下的应急设施选址策略研究

Emergency facility location is an extremely important task in emergency management. Taking into account the unpredictability and uncertainty, this project proposes a series of min-max regret location models and presents several principles and targets to evaluate these models. First, we design different feasible min-max regret location models and algorithms according to the specific characteristics of particular emergency environment. Second, assuming the relation between weights of road network and emergency conditions is nonlinear, we present and evaluate sevaral specific min-max regret models considering practical constraints such as traffic capacity. Third, considering the substitutability and reliability of emergency facilities, min-max regret models which can meet certain requirement are designed. Finally, considering the irrational behavior of victims, we propose min-max regret models meeting the hypothesis on bounded rationality. Comparing with actual and simulated cases, we improve the proposed theoretical models, summarize the similarities and differences among all proposed models, and further refine the general min-max regret models for emergency facility location problem. The prospective results will not only provide theoretical basis for emergency facility location problem, but also be contribute to the emergency management such as emergency evacuating, emergency rescuing and so on.

应急设施选址是应急管理中一项极其重要的内容。项目将研究最小最大后悔（min-max regret）度量下的应急设施选址问题。首先，针对特定应急环境的具体特征，设计不同网络环境下的最小最大后悔选址模型。其次，分析道路通行能力等具体的网络权重在应急过程中的非线性变化特征，设计相应的最小最大后悔选址模型。第三，考虑应急设施的可替代性和可靠性，设计满足一定可靠性要求的最小最大后悔选址模型。最后，研究应急过程中人的非理性行为，设计满足有限理性假设的最小最大后悔选址模型。项目将结合实际和仿真分析，完善理论模型，进一步归纳各类选址模型的共性与差异，提炼出应急设施选址的一般性最小最大后悔选址模型。预期结果不仅能为应急设施选址提供理论依据与可行方案，还将完善紧急疏散、应急救援等应急管理体系。

应急设施选址是应急管理中的一项极其重要的内容，项目基于最小最大后悔准则的视角研究了应急设施选址问题。首先，根据不同的路网结构，从简单的单条路网到复杂的一般路网，构建了相应的最小最大后悔选址模型；其次，根据道路节点是否有堵塞存在，构建了考虑堵塞成本的最小最大后悔选址模型；接着，针对不同的优化目标，如最大完成时间和平均完成时间，构建了目标不同的最小最大后悔选址模型；最后，针对建立的各个模型，分析不同模型的相关性质，找出其相对应的最大后悔值场景，得到相应的求解策略和算法。结果不仅能为应急设施选址提供理论依据与可行方案，还将完善紧急疏散、应急救援等应急管理体系。