居民通货膨胀感受的异质性、偏差及其形成机制研究

Inflation perceptions of different households or groups are usually different from each other, and often deviate from the inflation rate announced by the official statistics department. The heterogeneity and bias of household inflation perceptions are important factors to influence the inflation expectation, so that it has become the focus of western academics. .This research project takes the heterogeneity and bias of the household inflation perceptions and its formation mechanism as the object of study. The main study contents are as follows: firstly, we will analyze theoretically the formation of individual inflation perceptions and design mathematical models to depict the formation mechanism; secondly, we will analyze the formation mechanism of heterogeneity and bias in household inflation perceptions by the theoretical model that we design; lastly, we make empirical analysis and test on heterogeneity and bias of inflation perceptions of Chinese household. .The main innovations of this research project are as follows: Firstly, The integrated model that we design includes individual thinking pattern and two external stimulus which are individual shopping experiences and external inflation information; so that it can portray more completely the formation of individual inflation perceptions. Secondly, we modify two types of inflation perceptions models which are respectively based on the individual shopping experiences or sticky information so as to improve the applicability of the models by relaxing the premises and restrictions on the parameters of the models. Thirdly, based on the above improvements, we make a thoughtful and convincing explanation on the formation mechanism of the heterogeneity and bias of the household inflation perceptions. Lastly, yet there is little researches on the inflation perceptions of Chinese households, so this project will be groundbreaking.

不同个体或群体感受到的通货膨胀会有差异，而且通常高于官方公布的通胀率，这会影响社会通胀预期。本项目以居民通胀感受异质性、偏差及其形成机制为研究对象，研究内容是：对个体通胀感受的形成过程进行理论分析和模型刻画；运用所建立的理论模型分析通胀感受异质性和偏差的形成机制；对我国居民通胀感受异质性和偏差进行实证分析和检验。创新之处是：①构建的综合模型考虑了个体购物经验、外部通胀信息以及个体思维特质，从而对居民通胀感受的刻画更为全面；②通过放松假设条件和参数设置上的限制，改进基于购物经验和基于粘性信息的两类通胀感受模型，提高模型的适用性；③与现有研究相比，我们引入了个人资产状况和所受专业教育等因素来分析通胀感受异质性，引入了"证实偏差"、"保守主义偏差"、"锚定效应"和"易得性偏差"等认知偏差而不仅是"损失厌恶偏差"来分析通胀感受偏差；④以我国为样本的同类研究还暂付阙如，本项目是有益的尝试。

大量调查显示，不同个体通货膨胀感受存在显著差异，而且通常偏离官方公布的通货膨胀率。居民通胀感受所表现出的这种异质性和偏差近年来已成为研究通胀感受、通胀预期和货币政策的学者所关注的焦点；另外，居民通货膨胀感受异质性和偏差也会影响公众的投资行为和货币政策效果。在这种背景下，本项目以居民（消费者）通货膨胀感受为研究对象，研究内容主要包括：（1）对消费者个体通货膨胀感受的形成机制进行理论分析，构建刻画消费者通货膨胀感受形成机制的基本模型；（2）根据构建的基本模型，分析消费者通货膨胀感受偏差和异质性的形成机制，以及通胀感受偏差大小的决定因素；（3）对消费者通货膨胀感受偏差及其异质性的理论研究结果进行实证检验；（4）考虑到居民通货膨胀感受会影响公众消费和投资行为，进而影响货币政策效果，项目组在货币政策和金融市场行为方面做了一些拓展研究。. 主要研究结果如下：（1）“易得性心理法则”的作用，消费者“理性疏忽”行为，以及“损失厌恶”、“过度自信”和“锚定效应”等心理偏差的存在，会使得消费者通货膨胀感受普遍高于官方CPI通胀率；（2）消费者通货膨胀感受及其偏差与其性别、学历、居住在农村还是城市、职业、收入等人口统计特征和投资理财行为特征有关，但是在这些行为特征背后决定居民通货膨胀感受及其偏差大小的因素是消费者经济境况、购物频率、通货膨胀知识、信息处理能力，消费者经济境况越差、购物频率越高、通货膨胀知识越缺乏、信息处理能力越低，则其越倾向于高估通货膨胀。. 本项目构建的通货膨胀感受基本模型能比较全面的刻画消费者通货膨胀感受形成机制；基于这个模型，本项目对普遍存在的居民通胀感受偏差和异质性提供了比较系统的解释，进一步揭示了影响消费者通货膨胀感受（偏差）的人口统计特征和经济行为特征背后的潜变量，从而为研究居民通胀感受和预期提供了科学基础。另外，本项目研究结果有丰富的政策含义，可以为宏观调控当局制定政策提供新的思路和有益的参考。