稻作制度选择、农户收入与国家粮食安全--长江流域双季稻区为例

Rice is the most important grain crop variety in our country.Under the background of labor resource constraints and the rising cost of production factors，farmers` willingness of double-crop rice planting is declining continuously，as a result, planting area is reducing year by year. So, rice production in china is affected, national food security is threated. Under the premise of farmers' income growth safeguard, this research tries to probe into methods and measures of willingness to double-crop rice planting and realizes the goal of national food security. Firstly, this research is to analyze the famers' choice intention of rice planting system and find influencing factors, in traditional double-crop rice area and new north enlarged double-crop rice area that is due to climate warming. Then analyze the effects of peasants household labor resource allocation on rice planting system choice from the perspective of the opportunity cost, And analyze the contribution rate which indicates the marginal cost of the production factors to the net income under different rice planting systems; further explore the affect of factor substitution, variety innovation, land circulation, social and professional service and other ways or measures to increase farmers double cropping rice choices; Analysis the effect of national agriculture subsidies policy on the rice planting system selection and farmers' income, finally provide the effective suggestions which can improve farmers' income at the same time of insure the national food security . The research achievements of this subject is at the forefront in the theory and practice, it is worthy of in-depth discussion.

水稻是我国最重要的粮食作物品种，但在劳动力资源约束和生产要素成本上涨背景下，农户双季稻种植意愿持续下降，种植面积逐年减少，这对我国水稻总产量产生重要影响，一定程度威胁到国家粮食安全。本研究在保障农户收入增长的前提条件下，探讨农户稻作制度选择意愿倾向于双季稻的可能方法、途径和措施，实现兼顾国家粮食安全目标。本课题首先分析我国传统双季稻区和气候变暖双季稻北扩适宜区的农户稻作制度选择意愿及诱发因素；然后从机会成本视角分析农户劳动力资源配置对稻作制度选择的影响，分析不同稻作制度选择下的生产要素边际成本及对净收益的贡献率；进一步探讨要素替代、品种创新、土地流转和社会化专业服务等途径和措施对增加农户双季稻选择的影响；分析国家惠农补贴等政策对农户稻作制度选择及收入的影响，最后为相关部门在提高农户收入的同时保障国家粮食安全提供有效建议。本课题的研究成果在理论与实践上处于前沿，值得深入探讨。

上世纪90年代以来，长江流域单、双季稻种植交替现象愈发明显。造成稻作制度反复波动的原因，除了自然因素、技术进步、劳动力和经济收益等因素外，宏观政策、水稻供需变化等外部环境因素也是引起波动的重要原因，这些诸多原因，致使该地区内农户稻作制度选择存在多种演变方向的不确定性，本研究正是基于这些，从农户收入和国家粮食安全双重视角探讨农户稻作制度选择问题，结论如下。.稻作制度选择与农户收入方面。1.从农户家庭种植结构变化看稻作制度选择。农户种植结构内部变化对稻作制度选择具有显著的负向影响，这一影响关系的背后，实际上取决于农户种植结构中水稻与非稻作物净收益的相对变化。农户种植业净收益中非稻作物比重的上升，将会显著地诱发水稻复种指数下降或者稻田改制倾向。2.从非农就业看稻作制度选择。农户家庭非农收入对稻作制度选择具有显著正向影响，而且由于可在务农与非农就业的劳动时间上进行错峰配置。得益于农机服务发展将农户家庭劳动力从水稻生产中逐步替代或释放出来，增加了劳动力从事非农生产活动机会。3.从农机服务看稻作制度选择。农机服务对水稻种植农户的收入效应主要影响到家庭总收入，而对稻作净收益的影响为负。样本研究期内，由于双季稻生产的劳动力约束和村庄季节性用工短缺难以有效解决，单一依托发展农机服务无法有效地激励农户选择双季稻。.补贴政策效应与稻作制度选择方面。1.宏观上，从年均水平来看，财政补贴总支出对水稻复种指数提升作用明显，时间维度上，政策效应随时间延长呈现倒“U”型变化趋势。2.当前时点下，挂钩和脱钩对整体农户的平均效应均不明显，而挂钩补贴中的双季稻补贴对提高整体农户水稻复种指数有显著正向作用，大户奖励仅对纯稻作农户有显著正向影响，农机购置补贴仅对大规模与纯稻作农户复种指数均有显著正向影响。脱钩补贴，即中央农业“三项补贴”对所有农户均无显著影响。.本研究还进行了其它方面的有关农户稻作制度选择研究，得到一些可喜的结论。