PPP项目收益的形成机理、动态评估与调节机制研究

PPP projects are long and complicated. The benrfits of PPP projetcts are not very clear, hard to be evaluated, and questioned. Thus the research will aim at how to dynamically evaluate and adjust the benefits of PPP projects based on Computational Experiments. The perception and factors of benefits in PPPs will be analyzed to establish a benefit analysis system. Based on the analysis on the features of stakeholders and their behaviors in PPPs, a value network willl be established. The the SD model, Agent technology, and value network analysis will be intergrated to establish a platform for Computational Experiments. Based on the platform,following research work will be developed: Firstly, through simulating change of value flow in value network, the formation mechanism of benefits in PPPs will be obtained, then the evaluation mthods of benefits can be explored by CVM; Secondly, the scope of resonable benefits will be determined, then a driving mechanism for benefits adjustment in PPPs will be established from pespective of politics, economics, and society, by which the rule and trends of the mechanism change will be explored; Thirdly, the dynamic gaming process during the formation and adjustment of benefits will be analyzed, then the simulation will be integrated with Agents and Game, the experiments will be conducted for different adjustment measures according to different values from evaluation. The benefit function will be dynamically adjusted to reach the balance of benefits for different stakeholders. The research will contribute to the improvement of performance, sustainability, and saftisfaction of stakeholders for PPPs.

PPP项目漫长而复杂，其收益内涵不清、评估困难、调节备受争议，本课题主要运用计算实验方法研究如何动态评估与调节PPP项目收益。课题从PPP项目收益的内涵和影响因素入手，构建PPP项目收益分析系统，并基于利益相关者特性和决策认知行为的研究，构建PPP项目价值网，将多智能体技术、系统动力学分析与价值网分析结合，建立PPP项目收益形成与调节计算实验平台，基于计算实验平台：1、模拟价值流在价值网中的变化，探索收益形成机理，基于多主体的投标博弈法研究收益动态评估方法；2、界定合理收益范围，构建项目收益调节的“政治、经济、社会”三维动力驱动机制，并分析其运行规则及演变趋势；3、分析收益形成与调节过程中的动态博弈过程，开展基于多智能体的博弈仿真分析，以收益评估值为控制指标，对不同调节策略与机制进行实验，动态调整收益函数后实现收益调节。课题对提升PPP项目的绩效、可持续性、利益相关者满意度有重要作用。

PPP项目漫长而复杂，其收益内涵不清、评估困难、调节备受争议，本课题主要运用计算实验方法研究如何动态评估与调节PPP项目收益。课题从PPP项目收益的内涵和影响因素入手，构建PPP项目收益分析系统，并基于利益相关者特性和决策认知行为的研究，构建PPP项目价网，将多智能体技术、系统动力学分析与价值网分析结合，建立PPP项目收益形成与调节计算实验平台，基于计算实验平台：1、模拟利益相关者不同行为决策以及社会公众不同购买量影响下PPP项目收益的变化情况，以研究PPP项目收益形成机理和发展规律，探索收益形成机理，改进传统的条件价值评估法，基于公众支付意愿研究收益动态评估方法；2、界定合理收益范围，运用计量经济学模型和SD-Agent混合模型，分别从城市治理水平和轨道交通PPP项目正外部性补偿两个方面对PPP项目收益的影响，分析得到PPP项目收益调节驱动机制的运行规则及演变趋势；3、分析收益形成与调节过程中的动态博弈过程，建立基于利益相关者满意的PPP项目收益调节理论模型，开展基于多智能体的博弈仿真分析，运用可重复、可试验、可计算的计算实验方法探究PPP项目合理有效的收益调节机制。课题对提升PPP项目的绩效、可持续性、利益相关者满意度有重要作用。