基于复杂环境下重大工程传染性风险的动态协同管理创新模型及应用

In the complex environment, when dynamic risks featured with infectiousness and co-movement, etc. arise, the traditional static collaborative management of major projects can loss its activity and effects, which is manifested by problems including the ineffectiveness of management system and the loose capital chain, etc.. The applicant proves for the first time that the infectious risk exists in major projects and also reveals the infectious process of its single risk. Direct at the infectious risks of major projects, this research is carried out centering on two main aspects based on the previous studies of the applicant. Research work of the subject is conducted as follows. Firstly, through the longitudinal theoretical research, methods including clustering and mathematical model, etc. are adopted to explore mechanisms related to the collaborative management of infectious risks for major projects so as to make up the blank of existing theories; secondly, through lateral simulations and empirical studies, theoretical approaches and implementation techniques of the collaborative management based on infectious risk characteristics of major projects are presented and verified to provide a new method and choice for the collaborative management and its application in the infectious risks of major projects. Applications of those theories and methods are not only conducive to deeply understanding the infectious risks of major projects, but beneficial to exploring the collaborative management value for infectious risks of major projects. This research will further reveal the collaborative mechanism of infectious risks for major projects on one hand; and on the other hand reasonable preliminary and prognostic estimations as well as countermeasures will be designed. Therefore, it is of great significance for the improvement of the major project management level in China.

在复杂环境下，重大工程的传统静态协同管理在传染性、联动性等特征的动态风险下而失去活性与作用，其表现为管理制度失灵、资金链条松垮等问题。申请人已证明重大工程传染性风险的存在性，并揭示其单一风险的传染过程。此研究将在申请者前期研究工作基础上，面向重大工程传染性风险，主要围绕两个方面进一步展开研究，课题的研究工作将1)通过纵向的理论方法研究，采用聚类和数理模型等方法探索重大工程传染性风险协同管理的相关机理；以健全现有理论。2)通过横向的模拟及实证研究，提出并检验基于重大工程传染性风险特征的协同管理理论方法与实现技术，为面向重大工程传染性风险的协同管理及应用提供新的方法选择。这些理论和方法的应用有利于深入理解重大工程的传染性风险，探索重大工程传染性风险协同的管理价值。此研究将进一步揭示重大工程的传染性风险协同机制，设计合理的预前预后判断与应对策略，对提高我国重大工程管理水平具有重要的意义。

在复杂环境下，重大工程的传统静态协同管理在传染性、联动性等特征的动态风险下而失去活性与作用，动态协同被认为是最有望解决工程管理风险的方法之一，且协同管理将最大程度降低重大工程中的传染性风险。本项目以重大工程为研究对象，通过明确重大工程传染性风险的存在性及传染机制，探讨重大工程传染性风险协同的相关性及保护促进作用，确定协同管理调控重大工程传染性风险的关键性靶点，揭示重大工程传染性风险协同增益机制，以及初步设计在此理论下传染性风险协同管理的应用系统。这些理论和方法的应用有利于深入理解重大工程的传染性风险，探索重大工程传染性风险协同的管理价值，对提高我国重大工程管理水平具有重要的意义。