不确定环境下生鲜农产品整合运输、定价和广告决策研究

The fresh agricultural products is characterized by perishability, freshness, as well as seasonal and decentralized production structure, implying significant uncertainties in yield and demand. These characteristics also put forward a higher requirement for transport conditions. Due to lack of farming and circulation skills, the fresh agricultural products are suffering a heavy loss. Taking into consideration the uncertainties in the operation management of farm produce, the cost associated with changing prices and different shipment consolidation schemes, we will investigate the shipment consolidation, pricing and advertising decision problem for fresh agricultural products. The optimal policies that maximize the profit will be obtained using the piecewise linear system method, robust or stochastic optimal control theory. Furthermore, we will study the dispatch, pricing and advertising decision-making problem from the perspective of the coordination and optimization of the supply chain with fresh agricultural products. The cooperative advertising and revenue sharing mechanism will be designed and the equilibrium strategy will be obtained by using differential game theory. The impacts of shipment consolidation schemes on supply chain performance will also be analyzed. The realization of the research can effectively reduce the loss of the fresh agricultural products and operational risk, enhance the competitiveness of Chineses farm produce in domestic and international market, which has great practical value and broad prospect of application.

生鲜农产品的易腐性、鲜活性、生产的季节性及分散性给产品供给和需求带来较大的不确定性，同时也对其运输条件提出了更高的要求。由于不完善的经营模式和落后的生产、流通技术，我国生鲜农产品损耗严重。本项目综合考虑生鲜农产品运营管理中的各种不确定性、动态定价时的调价成本及不同的整合运输方式，拟对生鲜农产品企业的整合运输、定价及广告决策进行研究。建立企业收益极大化模型，运用分段线性系统理论、随机最优控制理论和鲁棒最优控制理论求解相应的优化问题得到最优策略。在此基础上研究生鲜农产品供应链的协调优化问题，建立供应链成员间关于价格、广告及整合运输策略的微分博弈模型，研究运输方式对供应链性能的影响，设计供应链成员间的合作广告和收益共享机制以协调优化生鲜农产品供应链。研究内容的实现可有效降低生鲜农产品的损耗、减少不确定因素带来的风险，增强我国农产品在国内外市场的竞争力，具有重要的实用价值和应用前景。

生鲜农产品具有易腐性、季节性、区域性等特点，不完善的经营模式和落后的生产、流通技术使得我国生鲜农产品损耗严重。本项目利用动态系统优化理论研究生鲜农产品整合运输和定价的联合决策问题。项目取得了一系列的研究成果，主要包括以下几个方面：1）考虑生鲜农产品质量及数量上的衰减，利用最优控制理论研究生鲜农产品的动态定价和质量控制决策；2）需求同时依赖于价格、库存水平及新鲜度时，研究生鲜农产品定价和订货决策；3）考虑市场需求和产品供给的不确定性，利用不确定系统最优控制理论分别研究生鲜农产品的整合运输及定价或生产决策；4）考虑供应链上下游存在贸易信贷，研究新产品的定价及生产决策。以上研究成果发表在European Journal of Operational Research、 International Journal of Production Economics、International Transactions in Operational Research 等国际知名期刊上，较好地完成了预定研究目标。本项目的研究结论可为生鲜农产品企业的库存及运输管理决策提供理论参考，增强我国农产品在国内外市场的竞争力。