欧美反倾销对中国上市公司的影响

Trade disputes between China and its trading partners often hit the headlines. In fact, China is the largest recipient of anti-dumping (AD) investigations and measures (duties/tariffs) in the world. Using a sample of listed firms, we examine whether AD cases against China initiated in the US and EU affect the relevant Chinese exporting firms, specifically, their stock prices, long term financial performances, and the subsidies they received from the government. .Our study contributes incrementally to the existing literature. Prior authors have examined the impact of AD investigations and measures on the output, productivity, profitability, the trading volume of Chinese export-oriented firms, and the number of firms in the relevant Chinese export-oriented industry. We use the capital market approach to further examine how these AD investigations and measures would affect the stock prices of the relevant firms. This approach can capture the expected AD effect and provide an alternative to estimate the impact of AD investigations and measures against Chinese firms. Many listed firms in China are export-oriented, yet there is no systematic study on how trade conflict news may affect the stock price of these firms. If AD investigations and measures are expected to produce some negative impact on a firm’s future cash flow or increase the uncertainty they faces, the stock price should go down immediately upon receiving such news. This has important implications to the market participants. In addition, we look at the long run performance. Specifically, we examine the stock returns and accounting performances of these firms up to 3 years after the imposition of AD measures against them. Furthermore, we investigate whether government subsidies to the relevant firms changes after the imposition of the AD duties. This is an interesting issue yet no other study has empirically examined it. It has been widely perceived in the west that Chinese government subsidizes Chinese exporters. The imposition of AD duties on Chinese firms offers a good opportunity to test if this is indeed the case..We also look at several related issues. First, the Chinese economy is in transition with many state-owned enterprises (SOEs). A common view is that Chinese government gives more favorable treatment to SOEs. It is interesting to see if this is the case when AD measures are imposed on SOEs. Second, under the mounting pressure from its trading partners, especially, the US and EU, the Chinese government started to allow its RMB to appreciate gradually in July 2005 from RMB8.27 per US Dollar to about RMB6.15 per Dollar at the end of 2013. It is also interesting to see if AD investigations and measures have more negative impact on Chinese firms after July 2005 when the RMB has been appreciating. Finally, it is reasonable to expect that firms received AD measures in the recent past react more negatively to the new AD measures. We further examine this possibility.

在过去的20年中，中国与其贸易伙伴之间出现贸易争端经常成为头条新闻和经济界关注的焦点。本项目从资本市场的角度出发，研究美国和欧盟对中国的反倾销调查及措施对我国出口型公司的股票价格和财务状况的影响。以往研究表明反倾销从宏观上对中国出口型企业的经营状况以及出口型行业的发展都有负面影响。本研究与现有文献不同，从资本市场和公司微观层面研究反倾销对公司股票及财务业绩的影响，这些影响的持续性。如果反倾销对公司的现金流产生负面影响，那么公司的股价就应下降。同时，本项目还研究我国政府是否对受反倾销措施影响的企业，尤其是国有企业是否进行额外补贴。这也是一个广为外界关心的问题。本研究有很强的实际意义。一方面本研究可帮助企业及相关政府部门进一步认识反倾销对资本市场和相关公司的影响，从而更好地应对相关贸易争端；另一方面也可为投资者更准确地把握贸易争端事件对股市的影响提供实证依据。

在过去的20年中，中国与其贸易伙伴之间出现贸易争端经常成为政府、公众和投资者关注的焦点。本项目从资本市场的角度出发，研究了美国和欧盟对中国的反倾销措施对我国出口型公司的股票价格、财务状况以及政府补贴水平的影响。以往研究表明反倾销从宏观上对中国出口型企业的经营状况以及出口型行业的发展都有负面影响。本文从资本市场和公司微观层面研究了反倾销对出口型公司多方面的影响以及这些影响的持续性。. 研究结果表明受到反倾销影响的企业的股票回报率在裁定日出现下降，且在裁定日后的三年内低于同类公司。这一效应受到汇率机制的影响，但与企业是否属于国有无关。受影响的公司的盈利水平也出现了下降。我们还发现过去三年中遭到过反倾销调查的公司可以更好地应对新的反倾销措施，从长期看这一效应更明显。此外，我们并没有发现政府增加了对受到反倾销影响的企业的补贴，对非国有企业而言补贴反而减少了。本研究一方面可帮助企业及相关政府部门进一步认识反倾销对资本市场和相关公司的影响，从而更好地应对相关贸易争端；另一方面也可为投资者更准确地把握贸易争端事件对股市的影响提供实证依据。