政府主导模式下的住宅用地供应绩效与优化策略研究

The supply of residential land is the starting point of the housing development process, the efficiency of residential land supply is directly related to whether the economic and social goals such as balancing housing supply and demand and maintaining stability in the property market can be achieved. Although some studies have investigated the efficiency of the overall supply of urban land, relatively few studies have fully considered the functional difference of different types of land uses and examined the efficiency of residential land supply. This research provides a theoretical analysis of the institutional features of the government-dominated mode of land supply and the connotations of the efficiency of residential land supply, and establishes an efficiency evaluation system and evaluates the efficiency of residential land supply based on the theoretical analysis. The regional and temporal differences in the efficiency of residential land supply and the factors affecting the efficiency of residential land supply are analyzed as well. The responsiveness of residential land supply to land price changes is examined by estimating the residential land supply elasticity. The measures to optimize the system of residential land supply and improve the efficiency of residential land supply are proposed by drawing lessons from existing theoretical achievements and empirical experiences. The proposed research is expected to contribute to a better understanding of the operating characteristics and operating mechanism for the system of residential land supply in China, and facilitate a more objective and comprehensive analysis of the supply side of the real estate market. The proposed research can also provide scientific basis and decision support for deepening the land reform and promoting new-type urbanization in China.

住宅用地供应是房地产开发活动的起点，住宅用地供应绩效直接影响着住房供需平衡、房地产市场稳定等经济和社会目标的实现。虽然已有研究考察了城市土地总体供应绩效，但鲜有研究在充分考虑各类用地功能差异的基础上专门关注住宅用地供应绩效问题。本研究在剖析政府主导供地模式制度特征、科学界定住宅用地供应绩效内涵的基础上，构建绩效评价体系、开展住宅用地供应绩效评价，进而深入分析住宅用地供应绩效的时空差异、探究住宅用地供应绩效的影响因素；通过测度住宅用地供给弹性考察住宅用地供应对地价变动反应的灵敏程度；在借鉴国内外理论成果和实践经验的基础上探讨优化住宅用地供应体系、提升住宅用地供应绩效的策略措施。本研究将有助于加深对我国住宅用地供应体系运行特征和机理的理解，有利于更加客观全面地研判房地产市场供给端状况，并可为深化土地制度改革、推进新型城镇化建设提供科学依据和决策支持。

住宅用地供应的数量、结构、区位和时序直接影响着新建住房供给，并进而对住房价格和房地产市场的运行产生重要影响。在推进“以人为本”的新型城镇化及适应和引领经济发展新常态、更加注重供给侧结构性改革的背景下，住宅用地供应绩效问题显得尤为重要。. 本研究在剖析政府主导供地模式制度特征、科学界定住宅用地供应绩效内涵的基础上，开展住宅用地供应绩效评价、探究住宅用地供应绩效的影响因素，测度住宅用地供给弹性，并结合国内外相关研究成果探讨住宅用地供应绩效的提升策略。. 研究发现，住宅用地供应绩效主要体现在平衡供需、优化供给结构、维持房地产价格稳定、提高住房可支付能力等住宅用地供应目标的实现程度上，因而选取住宅用地增长与常住人口增长的协调性指数、中低价位、中小套型普通商品住房及保障性住房的用地供应量在住宅用地供应总量中所占的比重、地价稳定度和房价稳定度等指标构建住宅用地供应绩效评价体系。住宅用地供应绩效存在着较为明显的地域和时间差异。地方政府的“土地财政”依赖度、城市建设用地占比和第三产业占比对住宅用地供应绩效具有显著的影响。典型城市的住宅用地供给弹性存在着显著的地域差异。与北京市和天津市相比，上海市住宅用地供应对地价变动反应的灵敏程度更高。住宅用地供应受到自身滞后值及地区生产总值、利率水平、收入水平等因素的影响。人口城镇化对土地城镇化起到了推动作用，但土地城镇化却未能有效地带动和促进人口城镇化。打破地方政府对住宅用地供给的垄断、扩大在集体所有建设用地上建设公共租赁住房的试点范围、利用考虑劳动力市场与房地产市场联动内生性的方法进行住宅用地需求预测有助于提升住宅用地供应绩效。. 本研究在住宅用地供应绩效指标体系构建和评价方法选择、住宅用地供应绩效影响因素识别、住宅用地供给弹性测度、住宅用地供应绩效提升策略选择方面具有较高的创新价值。