乌鲁木齐市郊乡村旅游经济-生态耦合系统演变及调控－适应模式研究

This project will be based on questionnaire, social statistics, field observation and remote sensing data collection and analysis, using multivariate statistical analysis, system dynamics, spatial autocorrelation and other methods, for the scientific problems of arid rural area "rural tourism development - economic growth - ecological environment coordinate - adaptation ", adopt "identification - balance integration - fit" thoughts to study rural tourism economy and ecology coupling system evolution and regulation mode in Xinjiang arid areas. Our main objective is: ①Analysis of spatial and temporal evolution of rural tourism economy and ecology coupling system in arid area. ②Clarifying the driving factors and the feedback mechanism of each subsystem in the rural tourism economy and ecology coupling system in arid area. ③Establishment of regulation and adaptation model of rural tourism economy and ecology coupling system in arid area. To carry out the project, help to form in arid district rural tourism economy and ecology coupling system regulation- adaptation model as the theoretical framework for the development of the main target, arid district rural tourism synthetic research laid a theoretical basis.

本项目将在空间数据、实测数据、问卷调查、社会统计数据等资料整合分析的基础上，利用多元统计分析、系统动力学、空间自相关等方法，针对干旱区乡村“旅游发展-经济增长-生态环境协调-适应”这一科学问题，采用“辨识-平衡-整合-适应”的思想，对新疆干旱区乡村旅游经济-生态耦合系统演变及调控模式展开研究。我们的主要目标是：①分析干旱区乡村旅游经济-生态耦合系统的时空演变规律；②厘清干旱区乡村旅游经济-生态耦合系统变化驱动因子及各子系统间反馈机制；③确立干旱区乡村旅游经济-生态耦合系统的调控-适应模式。本项目的开展，有助于形成以干旱区乡村旅游经济-生态耦合系统调控-适应模式为主要目标的发展理论框架，为干旱区乡村旅游系统研究奠定理论基础。

干旱区旅游发展与其社会、生态之间的耦合作用一直是学术界关注的热点问题。本研究以典型的干旱区乡村旅游目的地——乌鲁木齐县为研究区，在空间数据、实测数据、问卷调查、社会统计数据等资料整合分析的基础上，利用多元统计分析、地统计学、地理信息系统等方法，对干旱区乡村旅游经济-生态耦合系统演变及调控模式展开了研究。首先，我们研究了干旱区旅游开发、经济发展和生态安全格局的时空演变，探究演变背后的驱动机制，勾画了不同尺度的旅游资源、社会经济、生态环境分布格局；为确定各子系统之间的耦合协调关系，构建多维度的指标体系，分析了乡村旅游经济-生态环境耦合协调关系的时空演变、驱动因子及系统间反馈机制；构建旅游环境容量评价指标体系，评估典型景区多维度环境容量，为旅游经济-生态环境协调发展确定了景区综合承载力临界值。本项目的开展，有助于形成干旱区旅游经济-生态环境耦合系统的调控适应模式，为干旱区乡村旅游系统研究奠定理论基础。