克里雅绿洲复杂水资源系统多目标综合配置研究

The complexity of the water resources system is becoming a forefront of global water scientific research. Traditional configuration of water resources has been difficult to fully reflect the impact of multiple relationships between supply and demand of water resources system, hardly achieving efficient utilization of water resources, which needs methodological breakthrough. The Keriya Oasis, the target area of the project, is one of the typical regions in Tarim Basin, where water resources are very lacking and overexploited. Due to its arid climate, simple biodiversity and comparatively fragile eco-environment, the oasis is turned to a region occurring serious ecological and environmental changes under the influence of human activities, and has been ranked by the central government to a state-level poverty-stricken county. in this paper, facing the uneven temporal and spatial distribution of water resources and low performance problems in Keriya Oasis, an integrated methodology will be used by combining the prototype observation, field reconnaissance and numerical simulation to study the mechanism of binary water cycle, hydro-ecological response and configuration of water resources used by life, ecology and industry. Hereby, in order to discuss the multi-objective configuration of water system in Keriya oasis under climate change and human activities, a comprehensive multi-mediated ecological network analysis approach and its analogue model will be established to analyze the water efficiency of each agent from different system level and reasonableness of the overall system structure. On this basis, the dynamic control measurement will be proposed by integrating the ecological security and economic health of the oasis, providing a scientific basis for sustainable economic development in Keriya oasis as well as enriching eco-hydrology theory and methods.

水资源系统的复杂性正成为世界水科学研究的前沿热点。传统水资源配置很难全面反映水资源系统内多重供需关系的影响，不能真正实现水资源的高效利用，需要方法上的突破。本文以克里雅绿洲为研究靶区，针对克里雅绿洲面临的水资源时空分布不均、水资源效能低等问题，通过原型观测、野外踏勘，数值模拟相结合的方法，研究绿洲二元水循环机理、水文生态响应机理和三生水配置机理，构建多介质生态网络综合分析模型，探讨气候变化和人类活动下克里雅绿洲水资源系统的多目标综合配置，从不同层次分析水循环系统中各主体的用水效率以及系统整体结构合理性，提出面向绿洲生态安全和经济健康发展集成的水资源动态调控措施，为克里雅绿洲生态经济可持续发展提供科学依据，完善和发展生态水文学的理论和方法。

水资源管理一直是国内外研究热点，就生态脆弱和经济欠发达的干旱绿洲而言，水资源的多目标综合配置更为突出的理论和实践问题。本研究以昆仑山北麓塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘的典型干旱绿洲——克里雅绿洲为研究区，对此问题进行了深入研究。首先，我们研究了绿洲二元水循环机理，构建质和量兼顾的水循环网络模型，得到了一系列重要的研究结果；为实现水资源的多目标管理，通过实地采样分析了植被和景观格局对地表、地下水水文特征的响应机理，获得了一些研究成果；发现ENA提供的稳健性指标不能完全反映水代谢系统状态的合理性，提出结构-功能相结合的水代谢分析框架，并运用在克里雅绿洲复合水资源系统中，获得了该系统近20年来的状态演变特征及潜在的风险；利用水代谢分析框架，通过调整水循环结构，对研究区水资源配置问题进行了情景分析，初步得出一系列可借鉴的水资源管理选择方案；开发了一款绿洲水代谢分析工具软件，已经在内部使用。