基于展望理论的工作搜寻模型及应用

Job search models and applications will be studied from the prospective of behavior analysis in this project. The design of retirement old-age security mechanism is incorporated into the job search models to analyze the impact of retirement old-age security mechanism on the process and decision-making behavior of job search. Based on the prospect theory, job search models will be established and solved in order to obtain the laborers' optimal search strategies. The problems of wage-pricing strategies and employment contract-designing will be investigated combining with prospect theory. The enterprises' joint optimal wage-pricing and contract-designing policies can be acquired under these theoretical analysis frameworks. The game relationships of employers and employees will be analyzed and game models will be established. Meanwhile, the existence of labor market equilibria is provided and the conditions of achieving the equilibria are discussed. On the basis of above problem settings, the effects of the employment and the retirement old-age security policies on the labor market equilibria will be explored in depth. Furthermore, some suggestions for the formulation and reform of government's policies are provided. The research achievements of the project will further enrich the job search theory and dynamic uncertainty decision-making theory. Not only can the research achievements offer theoretical supports for solving the employment problems, but also help to improve the matching rate of the labor market and promote full employment. The research will contribute to achieving the optimal allocation of labor resources and promoting economic sustainable development. Therefore, the research of the project has important academic significance and practical value.

本项目从行为分析的视角研究工作搜寻模型及应用问题，拟把退休养老保障机制设计纳入到工作搜寻模型之中，分析退休养老保障机制对工作搜寻过程与决策行为的影响。基于展望理论建立工作搜寻模型，并求解模型给出最优搜寻策略。结合展望理论研究企业的工资定价决策及雇佣合同设计问题，给出最优的工资定价及契约设计策略。分析劳资双方的博弈关系，建立博弈模型，研究劳动力市场均衡的存在性及实现均衡的路径。在此基础上，进一步分析就业及退休养老保障政策对劳动力市场均衡的影响，为政府的政策制定及改革提供参考和建议。本项目的研究成果将能丰富工作搜寻理论和动态决策理论，而且能为解决就业难问题提供理论支持，有助于提高劳动力市场匹配率、促进充分就业，实现劳动力资源的优化配置，促进经济的可持续发展。因此，本项目的研究既有重要的理论意义，又有重要的实用价值。

现实的劳动力市场中，除了不完全信息外，市场参与者的诸多有限理性行为对决策者的最优策略也产生着不可忽视的影响。经典的工作搜寻模型已经无法对现实市场中的行为现象进行有效地解释。本项目研究基于展望理论的工作搜寻问题，建立了参考依赖偏好的工作搜寻与储蓄模型，利用次微分方法解决其效用函数在参考点处非光滑的问题，分析了损失厌恶心理对工人在职搜寻决策以及工作分配规划的影响。考虑参与者行为因素，研究了招聘企业最优搜寻问题，分别提出考虑候选者可流失情形与企业绩效水平的招聘搜寻策略，给出了最优决策规则与搜寻停止区域。此外，项目还研究了考虑损失厌恶与不公平厌恶的搜寻合同设计问题、双边道德风险环境下薪酬合同与机制设计等问题。通过构建劳动力市场双边匹配的均衡搜寻模型，研究了人力资本内生性增长以及试用期对工资分布、均衡失业率等的影响。应用提出的模型及方法，对优化企业的人力资源配置、增强产业组织的市场竞争力、以及协调劳动力市场供需匹配等现实问题提供决策参考。