资本下乡过程中农地流转冲突的发生机理与管控政策研究

In the situation of diversity new agricultural management, the conflict of the rural land transfer in the Process of Capital to the Countryside has become a problem and the challenges to the governments must face in current and future. But the research on the conflict of farmland circulation is not enough to enrich，especially the comparative study of the conflict in view of behavior has not been seriously. In case of Yongqiao District of Suzhou city(conflict of financial capital to the countryside ), Changfeng County of Hefei city(conflict of agricultural capital to the countryside ) and Dapu "new rural construction experimental zone" of Wuhu city(conflict of comprehensive development-oriented capital to the countryside), This project explores the cognitive and behavioral differences of” farmers (circulation households and non-circulation households), industrial and commercial capital, other business entities, the rural economic organizations and grass-roots government" during the different types conflict of farmland circulation. Basing on multivariate Agent modeling, the project simulates the conflict of agricultural land transfer of different situations, and reveals the occurrence mechanism of the conflict of farmland circulation in the process of capital to the countryside, and finally put forwards the “localization” control policy of the conflict of farmland circulation. The project is expected to expand research perspectives of agricultural land circulation and land conflict, meanwhile enrich its theory research content. On the other hand, it can provide theoretical and practical bases for promoting agricultural land circulation scientifically and orderly, preventing the risk of farmland circulation.

在新型农业经营主体的多元化发展形势下，资本下乡过程中农地流转冲突问题成为当前和未来各级政府必须面对的问题和挑战。但目前农地流转冲突的研究还不够充实，尤其是行为视角下的冲突比较研究尚未得到重视。本项目以安徽宿州市埇桥区（金融型资本下乡冲突）、安徽合肥市长丰县（农业型资本下乡冲突）、安徽芜湖市大浦“新农村建设试验区”（综合发展型资本下乡冲突）为案例地，探究不同类型农地流转冲突过程中“农户（流转户和非流转户）、工商资本、其他经营主体、农村集体经济组织、基层政府”等主体的认知和行为差异，基于多元Agent建模方法进行不同情境下农地流转冲突的重建和仿真模拟，进而揭示资本下乡过程中农地流转冲突的发生机理，最后提出农地流转冲突的“在地化”差别管控政策。本研究一方面有助于拓展农地流转和土地冲突研究的行为视角，丰富其理论研究内容；另一方面可以为科学有序推进农地流转、防范农地流转风险提供理论和现实依据。

“资本下乡”既是实现农村地区“人、地、资本”协调发展的重要助力，也有可能引发复杂多样的纠纷冲突，已经成为农村转型的“两难选择”。本项目调研分析了种植农业型工商资本下乡和休闲农业型工商资本下乡过程中农地流转冲突现状，探究不同类型农地流转冲突过程中各类主体的认知和行为差异，寻求管控农地流转冲突的政策路径。主要研究结果：（1）农地流转后农户综合福利具有下降趋势，其中经济状况、社会保障方面降幅较大，但农地流转绩效总体上较好，存在明显的区域异质性。（2）农户风险认知是影响其土地转出意愿的决定性因素，农户农地流转意愿对流转行为的影响系数达 0.906，呈现高度相关；（3）通过农地流转交易市场的模拟发现，适当延长农地流转年限、提高农地流转价格、创造更多非农就业机会等可以明显改善农地流转交易，但单独优化某一制约因素后市场整体运行仍旧受阻；（4）资本下乡过程中存在一定的农地流转风险，农地流转行为与宅基地退出行为存在悖离失调现象，需要引导建立农地流转与农村土地整治、宅基地退出等相关政策的联动响应。以上研究成果不仅为开展新形势下农地流转的系统研究提供了基础，也为政府规范资本下乡介入农地流转提供了理论支持和政策建议。