集体土地上征收拆迁冲突的发生机理、过程模拟与管控机制

Social conflicts between governments and displaced peasants have been continuously triggered by land expropriation and house demolition in rural China. Nowadays, the conflicts are gradually spreading from the eastern region to the central and western region. The research aims to develop a theoretical model of conflict from the aspect of conflict participants' behaviors, and specify the outbreak mechanism and behavior logic of primary conflicts and secondary conflicts through econometric analysis. The psychological process and behavior evolution mechanisms of individual peasant and social group in various stages of the conflict are revealed by psychological test of the conflict participants with Impact of Event Scale, Sleep Dysfunction Rating Scale, SCL-90 and Conflict Behavior Scale. A bottom-up system model of conflict is developed to conduct dynamic simulation, in which the agent attributes of government, village officer and peasant, and their interactions are identified according to Complex Adaptive System theory. The procedure of land expropriation and house demolition in current China and game theory are used to develop the behavior rules of different agents while genetic classifier system are employed to capture the adaptability of agents. Based on the system model, behavior rules, and genetic classifier system, the simulation system of conflict is developed with Java in Recursive Porous Agent Simulation Toolkit (Repast). Policy scenario simulation is conducted in the system to observe agents' behaviors, their evolution and emergence. The performance of different policies on land expropriation and house demolition in rural areas can be evaluated through analyzing the simulation results. The governance system of conflict can be put forward based on the identified outbreak mechanism and scenario simulation, which not only provides a solution to ease the conflicts for eastern China but also helps govern the conflict in the latent period for central and western China.

采用扎根理论和地理学冲突行为分析法，梳理征收拆迁冲突案例中主体的活动路径，研究活动顺序及时空特征。通过计量模型，从参与者行为视角阐明原生冲突和次生冲突的发生机理与行为逻辑。在时空间尺度、对象尺度采用事件冲击量表、睡眠量表、SCL-90量表、冲突行为分析表等测试参与者，厘清个体在冲突各阶段的心理状态、行为方式、演化路径等时空间动态秩序及群体的社会心理过程和行为演化规律。根据复杂适应系统理论设计政府、企业、村干部、农户等Agent属性及互动关系，自下而上建立冲突的系统模型；按照征收拆迁流程和博弈原理定义各类Agent的行为规则，构建适应性仿真模型。在Repast平台开发征收拆迁冲突仿真系统，开展多情景模拟实验，观察Agent的行为、演化过程及仿真"涌现"结果，评估不同政策绩效。基于冲突发生机理与情景模拟，构建宏观动态管控机制，既可为东部冲突的缓和提供对策，又能为中西部在冲突潜伏期提供治理思路。

日益严峻的集体土地上征收拆迁冲突的发生机理和演化规律并据此构建管控机制是当前新型城镇化进程中迫切需要研究的空间冲突及其治理问题，也是实现当代乡村社会稳定与发展所需解决的关键科学问题。本研究以“刺激—响应”为理论依据，以征收拆迁冲突的时空演化数据库为关键数据支撑，按照“冲突发生过程—冲突风险识别—冲突影响反馈”的思路框架，构建“拆迁意愿—拆迁效用—拆迁冲突”模型，挖掘征收拆迁冲突的发生机理、行动逻辑及演化规律；根据复杂适应系统理论设计政府、企业、村干部、农户等Agent属性及互动关系，自下而上建立冲突的系统模型；按照征收拆迁流程和博弈原理定义各类Agent的行为规则，构建适应性仿真模型。在NetLogo平台开发征收拆迁冲突仿真系统，开展多情景模拟实验，观察Agent的行为、演化过程及仿真“涌现”结果，评估不同政策绩效。基于冲突发生机理与情景模拟，构建宏观动态管控机制。研究结果发现：（1）征收拆迁冲突的发生在“冲突发生过程—冲突风险识别—冲突影响反馈”过程中，受到个体行为、文化、政策、环境（制度环境和司法环境）等多方面因素的影响，且在时空演化上呈现递增与集中的发展规律。（2）征收拆迁冲突中被征地农民之间、被征地农民与村委会之间、被征地农民与地方政府之间存在博弈关系。（3）构建冲突预警治理、冲突升级的应急管理、冲突心理干预等征收拆迁冲突的管控机制是缓解征收拆迁冲突的有效策略。本研究从理论上有助于拓展和完善征收拆迁冲突研究的层次及内容；从实践上既可为东部冲突的缓和提供对策，又能为中西部在冲突潜伏期提供治理思路。此外，以中国为对象的研究对具有类似经济社会特征的国家或地区的土地冲突研究也颇具参考意义。