长江流域双低油菜天气指数保险契约模型研究

The Yangtze river basin is the most concentrated rapeseed production areas in China, accounting for 90 percent of total growing acreage and yield all over the country.And it is the biggest double-low rapeseed production areas in the world,too. In recent years,the low temperature,waterlogging,drought and other weather disasters in the Yangtze river basin became more frequent and seriously affected the double-low rapeseed production of the region.It is of great significance to carry out the study of double-low rapeseed weather index insurance suitable for the Yangtze river basin in order to spread effectively agricultural risks and resolve the moral hazard derived from information asymmetry. Based on the investigation and research about agricultural insurance pilot areas in Yangtze River basin (Hubei,Hunan,Jiangxi and Anhui),the study explores the relationship between double-low rapeseed yields and climate change by constructing economic-climate models in order to reveal the effect law of climate changes on double-low rapeseed yields.And then the study reveals the correlation between the key meteorological factors and double-low rapeseed losses by establishing the double-low rapeseed climate suitability evaluation model. In the end,combined with the farmers' willingness to pay, the study calculates the the weather index insurance rates of double-low rapeseed by using distribution model derivation method of yield per area,designs weather claiming index of double-low rapeseed insurance,and forms weather index insurance contract model of double-low rapeseed.The study can provide support for the government to set up and improve the policy agricultural insurance scheme of double-low rapeseed, provide reference for policy agricultural insurance of other crops, and lay the foundation for designing drought index insurance contract for agricultural insurance company.

长江流域是我国的冬油菜主产区，种植面积和总产量占全国的90%左右，也是世界最大的双低油菜产区。近年来长江流域低温、渍害、干旱等气象灾害频发，严重影响了本区域的双低油菜生产。为有效分散农业风险，化解信息不对称带来的道德风险，开展适合长江流域的双低油菜天气指数保险研究具有重要意义。本项目在长江中游四省农业保险试点地区调研基础上，运用经济—气候模型探索双低油菜单产与气候变化的关系，揭示天气风险对双低油菜产量影响的规律，并建立双低油菜气候适宜度评价模型，揭示关键气象因子与双低油菜损失情况的关系。最终，结合农户的支付意愿，运用单产分布模型推导法厘定双低油菜天气指数保险的费率，设计双低油菜保险气象理赔指数，形成双低油菜指数保险契约模型，为政府建立和完善双低油菜农业保险方案提供技术支撑，为开展其它作物农业保险提供参考和借鉴，为农业保险公司设计双低油菜指数保险契约提供现实和理论依据。

本项目在长江中游地区进行较广泛的实地调研和农户问卷调查的基础上，基于农业保险和农业风险管理的基本理论，运用行为金融学分析法、回归模型法、主成分分析法等相关统计方法和计量模型，归纳总结湖北省双低油菜产业风险，实证分析了双低油菜天气指数保险支付意愿和农户政策性农业保险满意度的影响因素，从宏微观等不同角度探索农业保险需求的影响因素，并进一步研究了农业保险市场结构，农业旱灾脆弱性、风险管理与保险。本研究的主要内容与结论如下：（1）双低油菜天气指数保险支付意愿分析。本研究基于可持续生计分析框架，通过构造自然资本、金融资本、人力资本、社会资本和物质资本五类生计资本评价体系，采用湖北省农户微观调研数据，运用二元logistic 模型实证研究农户生计资本与双低油菜天气指数保险支付意愿两者间的关系。研究结果表明：五类生计资本都对研究区农户双低油菜指数保险的支付意愿存在不同程度的影响。其中，自然资本、金融资本、人力资本及社会资本对农户参与农业保险意愿的影响为正，重要性依次递减，物质资本对农业保险支付意愿有负向影响。（2）农户政策性农业保险满意度影响因素的实证分析。本研究基于感知价值的理论视角，结合研究区农户农业保险满意度调查，应用有序Logistic模型，分析户主个人特征、感知有用性、感知服务价值、感知产品价值、感知功能价值和感知费用等因素对农户农业保险满意度的影响。研究发现：感知服务价值和感知功能价值两个变量对农户农业保险满意度具有显著正向影响，感知费用对农户农业保险满意度具有显著负向影响。（3）农业保险需求的影响因素研究。本研究基于行为金融分析框架，构造风险认知、风险管理、保险认知、保险负担、农业情感五类行为变量，利用湖北省微观调研数据检验农户农业保险决策的影响因素。结果表明：获得无偿现金援助机会、家庭劳动力比重及土壤灌溉条件等风险认知和管理因素是影响农户农业保险需求的最主要因素，农户农业保险决策显著受到慈善困境效应的影响。五类因素的影响程度依次为风险管理、风险认知、保险负担、保险认知和农业情感。项目研究的科学意义：项目的研究成果为政府建立和完善双低油菜农业保险方案提供技术支撑，对促进农业保险业务稳健发展具有重要理论价值。